MLB Betting Articles

Well, the month of May is now upon us, which means that Major League bullpen statistics are starting to become meaningful and it is time to start implementing our Top 10 Pen ERA System.

Just to refresh your memories, this system says to play on any team that is in the top 10 in baseball in bullpen ERA either as an underdog of any price or as a favorite of less than -130, provided that they are not playing another top 10 pen team. Once again, here are the results of this angle for the last three years, starting on May 1 each year:

Top 10 Pen ERA vs. Non-Top 10 Pen ERA
As Dogs or as Favorites < -130 (Starting May 1)

1 TAMPA BAY RAYS (2.51) – These are not your father’s (alright, your older brother’s) Tampa Bay Devil Rays, as it appears this club exorcised the bullpen demons that have plagued the franchise when it dropped the “Devil” from the team name. Troy Percival of all people has yet to allow an earned run this season, and the Rays have gotten yeoman’s work from set-up men Gary Glover, J.P. Howell and Dan Wheeler. In fact, the pen has allowed just five total runs in 19 innings over the last seven days. It is no wonder that the Rays are off to their best start in franchise history, a 15-12.

2 ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (2.58) – Just to underscore the importance of bullpens even more, the team with the lowest bullpen ERA in the National League just happens to own the best record in baseball at 20-8. The Diamondbacks have not missed a beat despite trading their saves leader from last season Jose Valverde. New closer Brandon Lyon has come on nicely since blowing a couple of saves early, and fellow relievers Juan Cruz and Brandon Medders have both been unhittable at times.

3 PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (2.68) – Similar to Troy Percival of the Tampa Bay Rays, the Phillies have another unlikely pitcher to have not allowed an earned run yet to this point in Brad Lidge. In fact, Lidge is one of two Phillies pitchers to have pitched double-digit innings and remained unblemished, as set-up man J.C. Romero is also unscored on in 11.1 innings. Throw in a 1.56 ERA in 17.1 innings for Chad Durbin out of the pen, and it is easy to see why the Phillies are a prime candidate to win the National League East.

4 OAKLAND ATHLETICS (2.72) – The Athletics are another team that has two relievers that have not allowed an earned run, as Andrew Brown and Santiago Casilla each have perfect a perfect ERA while combining to pitch 28.1 innings. Unfortunately, the rest of the bullpen has not been quite as reliable, so make sure to check that Brown and Casilla were not both used extensively the previous night before pulling any triggers on Oakland. On the upside, closer Houston Street has not allowed any runs in three appearances over the last seven days.

5 FLORIDA MARLINS (3.16) – The Marlins may not have one single reliever that someone would call intimidating, but they have been the ultimate definition of bullpen-by-committee to this point. Florida has six relievers that have pitched at least nine innings this season and have an ERA of 3.00 or less. This is the main reason that the Marlins surprisingly sit atop the National League East entering May.

6 LOS ANGELES DODGERS (3.21) – The strong suit for the Dodgers this season has been middle relief, as Joe Beimel has a 0.93 ERA in 9.2 innings while Jonathan Broxton owns a 2.31 ERA in 11.2 frames. The downside is that closer Takashi Sato has not been nearly as unhittable as last season, although he still has a respectable 2.38 ERA and has not allowed a run in his last five outings. It should be noted that he has had just five save opportunities so far, so maybe we will see the Saito of last year as the save chances increase.

7 TORONTO BLUE JAYS (3.23) – We felt coming into this season that the Blue Jays would have the best bullpen in the American League, and they still might as B.J. Ryan gets more innings in after missing most of last season. Ryan has certainly looked good since his return, not allowing a run in five appearances, but those outing have totals just five innings. Last year’s closer Jeremy Accardo has struggled with an 8.00 ERA, but the rest of the pen has picked up the slack nicely. The Jays also have four pitchers that have recorded saves this season, with Jesse Carlson and Scott Downs each contributing one save, to go with four for Accardo and two for Ryan. Ryan should resume his role as closer soon.

8 CINCINNATI REDS (3.34) – The Reds were a popular sleeper pick to win the National League Central because of their bullpen, and while Cincinnati is a disappointing 12-17, you can’t blame the pen, which has done its part. Closer Francisco Cordero is a perfect four for four in save chances, with a 1.64 ERA and 12 strikeouts in 11 innings. Also, former starters Jeremy Affeldt (1.54 ERA, 11.2 innings) and Kent Mercker (1.86 ERA, 9.2 innings) have flourished in the set-up role.

9 NEW YORK METS (3.40) – The main reason for the monumental collapse for the Mets last September was that the long relief was atrocious, thus rendering closer Billy Wagner useless without any leads to protect. Well, they have improved in that area somewhat, especially with Duaner Sanchez coming back after missing all of last year, and Wagner has been lights out. Billy the Kid has yet to allow an earned run in 12 innings, allowing just three hits all year with 12 strikeouts.

10 CHICAGO WHITE SOX (3.43) – The White Sox are the surprising leaders of the American League Central as of May 1, and the bullpen has been a major factor in their surprising success. They may not be household names, but Scott Linebrink, Mike MacDougal and Matt Thornton have done a commendable job of getting the Sox to the ninth innings, where Bobby Jenks has six saves and a 2.31 ERA in 11.2 innings.

Other bullpens to watch: Minnesota (3.54), Colorado (3.61)

The first week of interleague play has arrived with some amount of hoopla in some of the major markets, but shrugs and yawns elsewhere. That’s because the geographically-based rivalries the MLB office has cobbled together don’t always work out very well. We have the Dodgers-Angels and the Mets-Yankees, but we also have the Rays-Cardinals and the Tigers-Diamondbacks. Yawn.

At least we can thank the baseball gods that we get to see major encounters like the Freeway Series and the Subway Series. Other established rivalries coming up this weekend include the Beltway Series (Nationals-Orioles), the Lone Star Series (Astros-Rangers) and the always-popular Battle of Ohio (Indians-Reds).

The American League ran off with a 154-98 record in interleague play in 2006, followed by a 137-115 advantage in 2007. But the tide may be turning; this year, the National League has the heavier bats, posting a .742 OPS to .721 for the junior circuit. The AL counters with better pitching (4.08 ERA to 4.23), but that comparison doesn’t mean much once we look specifically at the individual starters for each matchup.

N.Y. Mets at N.Y. Yankees
http://www.sbrforum.com/Scores/MLB+Odds/90284/ML.aspx
Game 1: Friday, 7:05 p.m. ET
NYM: Johan Santana
NYY: Darrell Rasner

Game 2: Saturday, 1:05 p.m.
NYM: Oliver Perez
NYY: Andy Pettitte

Game 3: Sunday, 8:05 p.m. (ESPN)
NYM: John Maine
NYY: Chien-Ming Wang

Santana has admitted that the transition to the National League has been difficult. But he’s coming along quite nicely with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP, and management has wisely pushed Santana’s start from Thursday to match him up against a familiar AL foe. Current Yankees are hitting a poor .714 OPS against the two-time Cy Young winner. Rasner (3.00 ERA, 0.83 WHIP) is still an unknown quality to most players after coming up from AAA-Scranton/Wilkes-Barre; he gave up two runs over six innings in each of his two starts this year as an injury replacement for Phil Hughes.

The Sunday night game on ESPN ought to be a quick one. Both Maine (4.01 units) and Wang (4.36 units) have been raking in the green, with Wang providing the added value of taking the under to a 7-2 record with eight quality starts and complete game. Maine responds with the best pitching on the Mets this year: 2.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and a 14.2 VORP. The under is 4-3-1 in his eight starts as the Mets nickel-and-dime their way around the basepaths with just 30 homers to 40 for the Yankees.

L.A. Dodgers at L.A. Angels
Game 1: Friday, 10:05 p.m. ET
LAD: Hiroki Kuroda
LAA: Joe Saunders

Game 2: Saturday, 3:55 p.m. (FOX)
LAD: Chan Ho Park
LAA: Ervin Santana

Game 3: Sunday, 3:35 p.m.
LAD: Brad Penny
LAA: Jered Weaver

Kuroda has been huge for the Dodgers since coming over from the Hiroshima Toyo Carp, where he was their ace for the last five years. Kuroda has a 3.59 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP, but Los Angeles has supplied him with just 4.75 runs of support per game, leaving the Dodgers 4-4 and down 1.1 units in his eight appearances. Saunders is on fire with a 2.48 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP, good for seven wins in eight starts and 6.09 units of profit.

The return of Chan Ho Park to the Dodgers’ rotation brings intrigue to Game 2. Park has been very useful in 25 innings of relief this year with a 2.16 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP, making him the most productive member of the staff at 9.7 VORP. Park’s four-year odyssey with the Rangers gave him some experience against current Angels, but nothing he’d care to remember. These Halos have hung a .898 OPS on Park with Vladimir Guerrero going 15-for-46 with four homers.

Baseball is in a recession. Runs are harder to come by; the Under was 293-245 (54.46 percent) after Sunday’s action, and 19 of the league’s 30 teams had records titled toward the Under.

Most of the exceptions are in the National League, where we find our Top 3 over teams in the majors.

1. Pittsburgh Pirates (23-13)
Pittsburgh was 23rd in run scoring during the 2007 season, the franchise’s 15th losing season in a row. But there is new hope under the new regime of sabermetric-friendly general manager Neal Huntington. The Pirates, with mostly the same roster as last year, have improved to 10th in the bigs thus far in runs scored.

Their pitching, however, is just as brutal as last year’s staff, allowing 196 runs. Only three other teams have been more generous. Matt Morris was so awful (9.67 ERA, 2.15 WHIP) that he was released, then cleared waivers and retired at the end of April.

2. Arizona Diamondbacks (21-13-3)
The Diamondbacks have come back down to earth a bit, losing six of their last eight games. But they’re mashing the ball with extreme vengeance; Arizona is second in runs scored at 208, behind the awesome hitting power of Justin Upton (.925 OPS) and Conor Jackson (.978 OPS).

These youngsters are still under the radar despite going to the playoffs last year. As word gets around, the betting odds on the under will start having more value – unless the back end of the rotation continues to sputter, starting with Randy Johnson (5.06 ERA, 1.43 WHIP)

3. Los Angeles Dodgers (19-16-1)
The Dodgers fell apart last year when the clubhouse was split in twain between the veterans and the new guys. The problem: Matt Kemp (.894 OPS) and James Loney (.919 OPS) had the nerve to disrespect their elders by outperforming them.

Manager Joe Torre appears to have solved that problem: Kemp, Loney and Andre Ethier (.855 OPS this year) are all getting at-bats, and the Dodgers are seventh in the league in runs scored. The pitching hasn’t been as sharp as hoped, giving over bettors the edge as ace Brad Penny (4.79 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) and Chad Billingsley (4.89 ERA, 1.58 WHIP) struggle.

Series to watch this week...

Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers
Game 1: Tuesday, 8:05 p.m. ET
LAD: Brad Penny
MIL: Carlos Villanueva

Game 2: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m.
LAD: Derek Lowe
MIL: Manny Parra

Game 3: Thursday, 1:05 p.m.
LAD: Chad Billingsley
MIL: Ben Sheets

After a numbingly poor 9-13 start, the Dodgers won 10 of their next 11 to put pressure on Arizona in the National League West. Then things got ugly. Los Angeles was outscored 32-7 during the four games leading up to this series, getting swept by Houston at Chavez Ravine for the first time in over 15 years.

Penny, Lowe and Billingsley were all lit up last week. Worse, Rafael Furcal had to sit out all four games with discomfort in his lower back. Furcal was enjoying a remarkable start to the 2008 campaign: 1.045 OPS and eight stolen bases in 10 attempts. Rookie Chin-lung Hu has a .536 OPS as a fill-in.

This is an opportunity for Milwaukee to get back into the NL Central race. After an epic 2-7 road trip that included sweeps at the hands of the Astros and Marlins, the Brewers returned to Miller Park and took two of three from a hot St. Louis club. Parra had the win in the series opener and “improved” his ERA to 5.79, still better than Villanueva’s bloated 6.46, up considerably from his first two years in the majors.

Milwaukee is only 23rd in runs scored, although the team does hit nearly as badly at home (.731 OPS) as on the road (.671 OPS).

It’s far too early to call the race, but the National League East is even tighter than it was last year. There are four teams within 2½ games of first-place Florida; we’ll see two of them in action Thursday night when the 20-19 Atlanta Braves (-2.71 units this year) visit the 22-19 Philadelphia Phillies (0.18 units).

The Braves have the most extreme home/road split in the majors this year, going 14-4 at Turner Field and 6-15 on the road. Quality of opposition hasn’t made much difference – they’ve lost to good teams and bad on the road, with their OPS dropping from .863 to .715. Outfielder Mark Kotsay has a .930 OPS at home and a .726 OPS away in the same number of at-bats.

Atlanta still managed to win the second game of this three-game set after dropping the opener. Thursday’s night’s rubber match features Chuck James on the mound for the Braves against fellow lefty Cole Hamels; the MLB betting odds have Philly as a big -180 chalk with a total of nine runs.

Atlanta has driven the under to a 26-10-2 record thus far with brilliant pitching, but James has not been part of that process. He’s one of only three Braves pitchers under replacement level at -3.7 VORP. James is a spot starter who has watched his production diminish since his strong rookie season in 2006, when he posted a 3.78 ERA and a 25.2 VORP in 119 innings.

The Phillies will be more than happy to see James on the hill. Jimmy Rollins, who was activated off the disabled list last week, is 9-for-18 lifetime against James with a 1.249 OPS. He and his teammates have combined to hit .804 OPS off James in the big leagues, improving on their .759 OPS facing lefties this season.

Atlanta has enjoyed far less success against Hamels, putting up a wimpy .678 OPS. There are two primary reasons for this. The most important is that Hamels is an ace: 3.36 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and seven innings per start – although he has just one quality start in his last four games. The second reason is that the Braves are not hitting well against southpaws, falling from a hefty .820 OPS against righties to .720 OPS. Atlanta’s had the misfortune of facing 17 lefty starters in the first 39 games.

In addition to a major advantage in the tale of the tape between James and Hamels, the Phillies have what it takes to finish the job. Their relief corps is No. 1 in the bigs with a 2.65 ERA, and Brad Lidge has regained his All-Star form with 10 saves and just one earned run allowed in 18 innings. Atlanta, on the other hand, is weak with injuries and 16th in the league with a 3.79 ERA. The wounded include Rafael Soriano (elbow) and John Smoltz (shoulder), the latter expected to become the closer once he returns from the DL.

There is one area where Atlanta has the edge in Thursday’s matchup, and it’s one that usually gets overlooked in the equation: defense. The Phillies have committed 35 errors to sit fourth in the league in butterfingers, while Atlanta is 15th with just 24 errors. In advanced terms, Atlanta has a .835 RZR (Revised Zone Rating) compared to .804 for Philly – the worst in the National League.

The Braves may have some value here given their overlooked superiority on defense, which has taken over from on-base percentage as the cause celebre of many a seamhead. But having to face Hamels is not going to be fun. First pitch is at 7:05 p.m. Eastern.

REYES HAS BLISTER
Atlanta starter Jo-Jo Reyes has a lot of potential, but he struggles mightily with in-game consistency and high pitch counts. He had to leave his last start because of a blister on his pitching hand, and it’s dubious that it’s completely healed after only four rest days. Reyes, of all people, is not the kind of guy who is likely to be able to overcome something like that.

With the Braves off a doubleheader and likely without Mark Teixeira, while the Phillies are rested after an off day and with Jimmy Rollins back in the lineup, things are looking in Philly’s favor here.

MORE FIREWORKS TO COME IN TEXAS
The total for this game opened at 9 and went to 9½, and it still may be sitting considerably too low. Seattle, which was having horrific problems scoring at home, exploded at hitter-friendly Rangers Ballpark. They’ll likely be at it again here, as Kason Gabbard and his ugly K/BB ratio promises to be an easier task for the Mariners’ bats than Vicente Padilla.

Felix Hernandez, for his part, looks like he’s settling into a groove of hittable mediocrity for the near future, as he often has throughout his career thus far. I don’t see a good start by either starter as likely here, and after that, the parade of sub-par relievers should again be vulnerable. A play on the over here is looking good to me, with the selling of runs to get better odds also probably warranted.

FIREWORKS POSSIBLE IN MILWAUKEE
This is another game where the total has risen considerably since opening, and it may still be too low. The Dodgers have a lively offense, despite Rafael Furcal’s injury and Andruw Jones’ health, and they find ways to produce. Their high-scoring games in LA belie the fact that Dodger Stadium is actually thought of as a pitcher-friendly park.

Miller Park, on the other hand, can be quite hitter-friendly when the roof is closed, as it usually is around this time. The Brewers’ lineup has been underachieving all year, but they do look like they may be coming out of it now and if they do, they could do so in a major way.

Both starting pitchers here can be good at times, but can also get shelled, which they have been getting of late. The total at 9 I think is more likely than not to be eclipsed.

KC A SMALL FAVORITE WITH GREINKE
It’s getting to be a broken record, but it’s true; when Zack Greinke is on, no lineup can get to him. He’s been on all year, although he is showing signs that he may face some trouble in the future. He is starting to give up home runs, and his fly ball/ground ball ratio is not where it should be for him. Still, until he does start getting hit hard, I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

This game features underachieving Detroit, struggling Nate Robertson, and a surprisingly low home favorite line for KC. It may be worth a decent shot with a bet on Greinke to continue his excellence on the mound.

This has been a really lousy start to the season for many baseball teams who were expected to be contenders in 2008. There’s no need to panic just yet, but that time is getting perilously close for the 15-21 Detroit Tigers, the 14-22 Seattle Mariners, the 14-21 Colorado Rockies and the 12-23 San Diego Padres.

Here are the betting odds on the World Series futures market for this unfortunate foursome, along with the deficits they’ve racked up for their supporters.

Detroit  10-1 (-10.42 units)
Seattle   45-1 (-10.15 units)
Colorado 60-1 (-7.43 units)
San Diego 60-1 (-13.78 units)

These are four of the five least profitable teams in the MLB money standings. The Tigers have held onto a spot in baseball’s upper class with a loaded roster and a very weak American League Central division led by 17-16 Minnesota. Everyone else has taken a huge slide down the odds list; Seattle was 28-1 at the open, San Diego was 22-1 and last year’s Rocktober playoff team opened at 18-1. It’s a long climb back out of the doldrums for all three.

Colorado vs. San Diego

Game 1: Friday, 10:05 p.m. ET
COL: Aaron Cook
SD: Jake Peavy

Game 2: Saturday, 10:05 p.m.
COL: Ubaldo Jimenez
SD: Greg Maddux

Game 3: Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
COL: Greg Reynolds
SD: Chris Young

It’s one thing for the Padres to be last in the majors with a .304 OBP. That’s what you get for playing in Petco Park. It’s quite another to have a 4.15 ERA (16th overall) in such a pitcher’s paradise. San Diego had the lowest ERA in baseball last year at 3.70, and Petco had the lowest park factor for runs at 0.755. But the Fathers should have the pitching advantage in this series as they start with ace Jake Peavy (2.22 ERA, 1.03 WHIP). Colorado responds with the middle of the rotation, although Aaron Cook has been their best starter at 2.40 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

It’s a long drop for the Rockies after Cook. Ubaldo Jimenez (5.82 ERA, 1.94 WHIP) has been rising up the minor-league charts since signing out of the Dominican in 2001. However, Jimenez has had just one quality start in seven tries and has dropped 5.51 units. And Greg Reynolds has been called up from AAA-Colorado Springs to make his MLB debut in Mark Redman’s former spot in the rotation. At least Reynolds will have a relatively light first day on the job at Petco.

White Sox vs. Mariners

Game 1: Friday, 10:10 p.m. ET
CHW: Jose Contreras
SEA: Carlos Silva

Game 2: Saturday, 10:10 p.m.
CHW: Javier Vazquez
SEA: Jarrod Washburn

Game 3: Sunday, 4:10 p.m.
CHW: Gavin Floyd
SEA: Miguel Batista

That excellent starting pitching that the White Sox were getting is still there – see Gavin Floyd’s brush with a no-hitter in his last start – but the batting order has gone flat after a hot start. The Pale Hose had a .258 OBP after seven games in May; four players are below the Mendoza line this month, with Nick Swisher the worst offender at 3-for-27 with 10 strikeouts. Great pitching and awful hitting have the under on a 9-1 streak for Chicago.

Meanwhile, Seattle is just plain awful at 3-12 in the last 15 games, getting outscored 74-43 in the process. The Mariners are barely ahead of San Diego with a .305 OBP; call-ups Jeff Clement (3-for-23, 11 K) and Wladimir Balentien (7-for-30, nine K) haven’t been the tonic the M’s were looking for, at least in the short term. Seattle is getting decent pitching from innings-eater Carlos Silva, although he got lit up by the Yankees in his last appearance to send his ERA soaring from 2.79 to 4.20. Things fall apart for the M’s after Silva in this weak rotation.

Baseball is the kind of sport that lends itself to a pointspread. But if you’re not a big fan of chalk, you might find the runline more to your satisfaction for certain MLB matchups.

For those of you new to the game, the runline saddles the favored ballclub with a 1.5-run handicap. To cash in, the favorite must win by at least two runs. It’s enough of a challenge to soak up a lot of chalk. For example, the Cleveland Indians were given -200 betting odds Saturday against the Kansas City Royals. Here’s how the runline looked:

KC +1½ (-110) / CLE -1½ (-110)

The Royals won the game 4-2, so Cleveland bettors who played the runline were out of pocket only $110 to win $100, instead of coughing up $200. On the season, the Indians are 9.71 units in the hole, but only down 3.97 units on the runline.

It’s debatable whether the Indians can keep up the good fight against the runline, since they’re ranked 22nd in the league in scoring with 132 runs after 31 games. The runline theoretically is in the favor of high-scoring teams; there are none higher right now than the Chicago Cubs at 189 runs. And Chicago supporters do enjoy an advantage on the RL, although very small at 2.38 units of profit compared to 2.10 units on the ML.

Keep in mind when betting the runline that roughly 30 percent of MLB games are decided by a single run. Also consider using this ploy for visiting teams, who will always get nine innings (weather permitting) at the plate while the home team may only get eight.

Philadelphia at Arizona

Game 1 (Monday, 9:40 pm Eastern)
Jamie Moyer vs. Max Scherzer

Max Scherzer is a prime pitching prospect for the Diamondbacks. Last Tuesday, he made his MLB debut in relief and retired all 13 Houston batters he faced, striking out seven. And Scherzer did it on just 47 pitches. He’ll lead the Snakes as -145 favorites against Jamie Moyer and the Phillies. Moyer is having an inconsistent season thus far, with three quality starts in six appearances and a profit of 0.59 units.

Game 2 (Tuesday, 9:40 pm)
Adam Eaton vs. Randy Johnson

Since returning to action, Johnson (age 44) has gone through the same kind of ups and downs as Moyer (age 45). Arizona is 2-2 and minus $63 with the Big Unit on the hill. Eaton, on the other hand, has led the Phillies to the pay window in four of six starts for 2.01 units. Current Snakes hitters are a combined .526 OPS off Eaton, and the under is 5-1.

Game 3 (Wednesday, 9:40 pm)
Kyle Kendrick vs. Micah Owings

Each of these pitchers joins Eaton with a 4-2 team record, Kendrick at 1.88 units to the good (with the over at 5-1) and Owings at 1.69 units. Owings got some extra publicity with his pinch-hit home run last Wednesday against Houston; he hit four long balls last year and won the National League Silver Slugger at 20-for-60 with a 1.032 OPS. Kendrick is decent for a pitcher at .368 OPS lifetime, but has one hit in 11 at-bats this year. This is a significant advantage for Arizona.

Game 4 (Thursday, 3:40 pm)
Brett Myers vs. Brandon Webb

Webb remains unblemished this year at 7-0 in seven starts with a 2.49 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. He currently stands fourth among starting pitchers with a profit of 6.14 units. Myers is bleeding red ink, down 3.01 units despite Philly going 3-4 in his starts. Losing to the Nationals, Pirates and Giants will do that to your bankroll. Philadelphia has had some success against Webb; Chase Utley is 5-for-11 with five RBIs, and current Phillies have a combined .789 team OPS against the 2006 Cy Young winner.

Boston vs. Detroit. It’s got a ring to it; think of the Celtics vs. the Pistons, or an Original Six matchup between the Bruins and Red Wings. But there isn’t really much of a rivalry on the diamond between the Red Sox and the Tigers – yet.

These two teams are still projected to battle for the American League crown and a trip to the World Series. The Red Sox (up 7.76 units at 22-14) are the favorites to win the pennant at 11-5, while Detroit is hanging around at 5-1 betting odds despite starting the season with a 15-20 record. The Tigers have cost their supporters 9.42 units, 7.8 units of which came at Comerica Park, where the home team is just 7-10 thus far.

Comerica has gradually turned into a hitter’s park since the fence in left field was brought in before the 2004 season. Home runs have been flying over that fence; Comerica’s HR park factor was 1.140 in 2007 and is currently the third highest in the majors at 1.350. Only Denver’s Coors Field and Houston’s Minute Maid Park are generating more long flys.

That’s music to the ears of Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz, each with seven homers on the season to sit one behind Chicago’s Carlos Quentin for the AL lead. But Comerica hasn’t been kind to Ramirez; he posted an anemic .687 OPS in Detroit in three seasons heading into 2008. Ortiz, on the other hand, has a 1.119 OPS over the same span and a pair of homers in eight at-bats this year.

Those numbers could go up the way Justin Verlander has been pitching. He takes the mound in the fourth game of this four-game set; Boston won two of the first three to improve to 4-2 against the Tigers this season. None of those six contests featured Verlander or his opposite number for the Red Sox, Josh Beckett.

Verlander is one of three Detroit starters to hit the skids this year – Kenny Rogers and Nate Robertson being the others. But Verlander is supposed to be the ace of the staff; instead, he’s last in the MLB money standings at 7.37 units in the hole with a 6.28 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. The Tigers have won just one of his seven starts this season.

Beckett, injuries notwithstanding, has been impressive for the Red Sox after making some finesse adjustments to his power pitching last year. He leads all Boston starters with a 0.98 WHIP and 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings. However, Beckett’s 4.19 ERA is high enough for the Red Sox to only win three of his five starts, collecting 0.84 units.

This will be Beckett’s first ever start at Comerica. He had one of the most extreme home/away splits in 2007, going 11-2 on the road with a 2.18 ERA. But that appears to be an extreme case; there is a much smaller difference between Beckett’s home and away numbers during his seven years as a regular starter. In 2008, Beckett has a 4.30 ERA at Fenway Park and a 4.12 ERA elsewhere. He’s also found his stamina again, topping the 100-pitch mark and getting through at least seven innings in each of his last three starts.

Current Detroit hitters have combined for a lousy .659 OPS off Beckett with just one home run in 60 at-bats. On the other side of the coin, the Sox have cranked Verlander for a .810 OPS on 12-for-45 hitting, seven walks and a pair of dingers. And with Detroit’s most effective relievers on the shelf, it’s not a surprise to see the Tigers as +115 home dogs in this matchup.

The total for Thursday’s game is 8.5 runs. First pitch is at 7:05 p.m. Eastern with coverage on FSN in Detroit and NESN in Boston and beyond.

PADRES STRUGGLE TO SCORE
The Padres/Braves matchup on Tuesday is an interesting one. For all of San Diego’s complaining about Petco Park stifling their offense, they don’t hit terribly well on the road either. They have stud Adrian Gonzales, two .300 hitters with little power, and that’s it. That does not bode well for them going up against Atlanta’s Jair Jurrjens, a ground ball pitcher who has been consistently effective so far this year.

Chris Young will valiantly try to keep the Pads in the game, and he may well succeed. But there’s not looking like a lot of run production in store for San Diego in this game, and Young will likely have to be lights out to give the Pads the upper hand at the end of this one. I’m considering plays on the Atlanta money line, the under, and the San Diego team total under.

MORE SCORING AT COORS
Predicting vulnerability in Mark Redman may not be earth-shattering, but what else can you say about him? He’s pitching to keep his spot in the rotation and possibly his spot in the majors, but he’ll have a tough time against St. Louis’ capable lineup in newly lively Coors. Cards starter Braden Looper is up for a so-so outing himself, so I’m looking at taking another Over in Colorado here.

QUALITY STARTERS SQUARE OFF IN CHICAGO
Another interesting game on the card is the Minnesota/White Sox game which will feature two good young starters in Nick Blackburn and Gavin Floyd going up against two mediocre offenses. Blackburn has pitched decently twice against the White Sox this year, and I expect Floyd to have a good game as well coming off of extended rest. The Under 9 in this game looks to me like a reasonable play with small but confident edge.

PONSON RIDES AGAIN
Sidney Ponson’s strong start against Kansas City last week truly surprised me. I’m rooting for him in my heart, but in my head I still feel he’s a risky bet. To his credit though, his strikeouts are up and his walks are down, and going into Safeco and facing Seattle should be an easier task for him than his first two starts of the year.

Miguel Batista is solid, and the betting odds look to me to have this game rated about right. I probably won’t bet it, but I’ll be watching Ponson for signs, good or bad.

MORE LOW SCORING AT OAKLAND
As with Monday’s game, Tuesday’s Baltimore/Oakland game is again not likely to see a lot of runs crossing the plate. There’s just not a lot of life in these bats, and while Tuesday’s starters may be a bit less dependable than those from Monday’s game, the total is still hanging reasonably high, all things considered.

Oakland is showing real trouble dealing with capable lefties, and Orioles’ starter Brian Burres is just that. He’s the kind of guy who can look vulnerable against strong lineups, but when facing weaker lineups in pitcher-friendly parks, definitely has the ability to come out of most innings without giving up any runs.

With Baltimore going as a decent-sized dog, another play on their 5-inning line and/or their plus run line may have value.

DODGERS LOOK PROMISING AGAIN
The Dodgers handled the Mets fairly easily on Monday night, and Tuesday is looking to have similar things in store.  The Mets are struggling at the plate, and Carlos Beltran’s slump is key. He may be breaking out of it as he is 4-for-11 in his past three games, but he still has not driven in a run in seven straight games now, and that is not something you want to see out of your cleanup hitter.

The Dodgers’ lineup is as usual balanced and capable, and with the starting pitching matchup roughly even, LA is looking like a decent bet to me here at home as a modest favorite around -130.

TIGERS’ FLOUNDERING CONTINUES
The betting odds for the opener in the Boston/Detroit series have the game pegged as a toss up, but I’m not so sure about that.  The Red Sox look to me to have small edges in all areas for this one – starting pitching, bullpen, lineup, and mental state.

The Sox are not the same team on the road as they are at home, that’s true. But the Tigers are starting to look like they are going to be the head case team of 2008. Their struggles may not be easily solved, and I see a lot of .500 play in their future consisting of explosive home run-based blowout wins surrounded by listless losses.

Tigers’ manager Jim Leyland said, “There will be changes (Monday).” But Detroit’s formula for this year is set, and it’s not looking like a reliable one over the long term.

Additionally, Daisuke Matsuzaka is showing signs of improvement while Jeremy Bonderman’s BB/K ratio is troubling, and does not point to future success for him. The total of 9 also seems a tick low to me.

SCORING IS UP AT COORS
St. Louis starter Joel Piniero has thrown two strong starts in a row, but be careful of backing him here. He has never pitched at Coors’ before, and he is not the type of pitcher likely to do well there.

By the way, the juice might be back in the balls at Coors now, as five out of the last seven games played there have hit double digits in scoring with an average of over 13 runs per game scored in that span. With both lineups involved here decent, and both starters and bullpens involved questionable, the total of 10 might be hanging a bit low.

If I do take St. Louis in any game in this series, it will almost certainly be on the run line. Volatility should be high, and needing Jason Isringhausen to get a save at Coors in order to cash a ticket is not a position I want to be in.

IMPRESSIVE SCHERZER TO MAKE FIRST MLB START
Those who loved and lost with Johnny Cueto in April, take heart: Introducing Max Scherzer. The newest flame-throwing phenom of the month is looking very promising, and with the betting odds putting him and Arizona as a favorite of only -140, there may be value there.

Scherzer does seem to be the real deal, and he may soon become the talk of MLB. He throws in the upper 90s and ices hitters with a dominant slider, like a right-handed Francisco Liriano circa 2006. His K/BB/IP ratio in Triple-A this year was stunning, and based on his debut in the majors last week against Houston where he struck out seven and walked none in four and a third innings, big league hitters may not fare much better.

Crafty and unflappable vet Jamie Moyer is not the ideal guy to have opposing Scherzer, but the Diamondbacks do provide good insurance with a strong lineup and a capable bullpen. All in all, this might be the cheapest price we will see with Scherzer for a while, and in a few weeks we might look back at this line with Arizona at -140 as a substantial gift.

SANTANA FARING BETTER ON THE ROAD
Perhaps a bit under the radar, Ervin Santana has been good on the road this year, in stark contrast to his notorious difficulties on the road in his career to date. And almost poetically, each of his three road starts this year has addressed his major areas of road weakness: Indoors, at Minnesota; in the hitter-friendly park at Texas; and when facing a strong home run hitting lineup at Detroit.

Kansas City’s lineup is ok, but presents a lesser challenge than any Santana has faced so far this year. That of course may ironically set him up for a fall, but with the Angels fielding a balanced and quality lineup this year and Royals’ starter Brett Tomko struggling pretty badly, a play on the Angels’ run line might have merit. The total of 9½ at even money is also looking decent to me.

LOW SCORING AT OAKLAND
The Baltimore/Oakland game is not likely to see a whole lot of runs crossing the plate. Despite Oakland’s occasional explosions of runs on the road, they are not too formidable of a team offensively, particularly at home. They scored three runs in each of their games against Texas, and are likely to get about that here.

Orioles’ starter Garrett Olson needs to control his walks, which is a traditional strength of patient Oakland lineups, but if he can there won’t be much for the Athletics to manufacture for themselves. Dana Eveland is well-suited to face lineups like Baltimore’s at parks like McAfee, and I see a quality start from him as quite likely. Due to low volatility, a play on the +1½ run line for Baltimore may be a smart move.

TEXAS AND SEATTLE IFFY AT THE PLATE
In a game similar to the Baltimore/Oakland game, a play on the under and/or a +1½ run line may be best here. Both starters involved should be able to keep the runs to a minimum at spacious Safeco, and neither team is hitting particularly well right now. I could easily see this one going into extra innings tied at 3-3.