NBA Betting Articles

The bounce-back is in full effect. The NBA’s Conference Semifinals were threatening to become a cakewalk, but the San Antonio Spurs and Orlando Magic both have new life. The Magic went home Wednesday down two games to none and crushed the Detroit Pistons by 25 points. The Spurs were humiliated twice in New Orleans, but came up big against the Hornets in Thursday’s Game 3 back at the T.

The Boston Celtics didn’t actually lose their series opener, but their vastly improved performance against the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 2 still qualifies as a bounce-back. Can the Utah Jazz do the same against the Los Angeles Lakers Friday night?

No. 1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 4 Utah Jazz
Game 3: Friday, May 9, 9:00 p.m. (ET) ESPN

Utah was pummeled twice in Los Angeles, failing to keep up with the Lakers offense – starring the MVP himself, Kobe Bryant. He is arguably playing the best basketball of his life right now with 34.3 points per game in these playoffs. And Bryant is able to do his best work thanks to co-star Pau Gasol and a fine supporting cast. The Jazz are also getting strong contributions from their bench players, which helped them mount second-half comebacks in both games at the Staples Center. The betting odds have Utah favored by four points at home with a total of 215.5.
 
No. 2 Detroit Pistons vs. No. 3 Orlando Magic
Game 4: Saturday, May 10, 5:00 p.m. (ET) ESPN

This series did an about-face at the 3:49 mark of Game 3, when Pistons point guard Chauncey Billups suffered a strained hamstring and had to leave the court. Orlando went on to a 111-86 win as a 5-point chalk. Magic pivot Jameer Nelson was free of Billups and shot 7-for-14; fellow guard Keyon Dooling chipped in a quick 10 points in nine minutes off the bench. Billups has been going through a series of treatments and is officially listed as questionable for Saturday. If he’s questionable, then so are Detroit’s chances to win Game 3, if not the entire series.

No. 1 Boston Celtics vs. No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers
Game 3: Saturday, May 10, 8:00 p.m. (ET) ABC

The Celtics offense got hit with the ugly stick in the series opener, a 76-72 mud-wrestling match that barely went in Boston’s favor. But nothing could go wrong for the Celtics in Game 2, and like the Orlando-Detroit situation, the Cavaliers only got 3:40 out of Ben Wallace before he left the game feeling faint. It turned out to be an allergic reaction that Wallace blamed on the pyrotechnic show during the pregame introductions. Boston marched into the paint early and often without Wallace at the 4-spot. At the other end, Cleveland’s perimeter shots just weren’t falling: 2-for-13 from behind the arc on Wednesday. Wallace appears fine for Game 3, but the Cavs still need more of those 3-pointers to go in.

No. 2 New Orleans Hornets vs. No. 3 San Antonio Spurs
Game 4: Sunday, May 11, 9:00 p.m. (ET) TNT

For the third time in a row, Chris Paul was poison for the Spurs, with 35 points and nine assists. However, San Antonio did a much better job of defending Peja Stojakovic, holding him to eight points as the Hornets went 2-for-11 from downtown in a 110-99 loss. The Spurs put Manu Ginobili in the starting lineup, and it paid off when he scored 31 points and Michael Finley added a timely 11 off the bench. San Antonio also went nuts from long range at 11-for-25 and were unusually accurate from the free-throw line at 17-for-21. These numbers will be difficult to reproduce in Game 4.

The New Orleans Hornets need to be taken seriously. Handicappers have been making a mint off these guys: 50-30-2 against the spread during the regular season, and another 3-2 ATS to eliminate the vaunted Dallas Mavericks in relatively easy fashion.

New Orleans has such a “small-market” anonymity that Chris Paul was overlooked as the league’s MVP despite these jaw-dropping numbers: 21.1 points, 11.6 assists and 2.7 steals per game, hitting 85.1 percent of his free throws and 36.9 percent from behind the arc. Paul is also one of the finest defensive players in the league.

It didn’t help New Orleans’ reputation when the arena’s “entertainment” squad caused a 19-minute delay between the first and second quarters of Saturday’s Western Conference semifinal opener with the San Antonio Spurs. The mascot Hugo was raked over the coals for a “ring of fire” trampoline dunk; attendants used the wrong kind of fire extinguishers and sprayed sticky goop all over the floor.

But nobody could cool off Chris Paul. He posted 17 points, 13 assists and four steals as the Hornets (-3) stunned San Antonio 101-82. At press time, they were just 2½-point faves over the Spurs in Monday’s Game 2. The defending champions found their playoff stride against Phoenix, but are the betting odds giving too much respect in this series? Tim Duncan was held to five points on 1-for-9 shooting. Alarm bells should be going off in San Antonio.

Things don’t look too promising for the Utah Jazz, either. They were handled 109-98 by the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday, hitting just four of 19 from 3-point range and dropping the cash as 8-point road dogs. The Jazz were a bit flat in Game 1 after getting extended to six games by Houston, so they’ll welcome the wait for Wednesday’s Game 2. Otherwise, they appear overmatched by the Lakers defense and the Kobe Bryant-Pau Gasol axis.

Old-school NBA fans are still on the bus for a Lakers-Celtics final. Boston put the kibosh on Atlanta’s playoff surge with a 99-65 win; the Hawks had nothing to offer Sunday after extending their first-round series to seven games. That sets up an intriguing matchup against LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers. Game 1 is Tuesday night at the Garden.

The early line had the Celtics as 10-point home favorites. When these two teams met at the Garden on Feb. 27, Boston (-9½) won 92-87. This was with point guard Daniel Gibson still on the injured list; Gibson and Delonte West combined to shoot 24-for-48 from downtown to dust off the Washington Wizards. Wally Szczerbiak pitched in 10-for-29, all of this perimeter offense opening the floor up for King James to score 29.8 points per game. Boston will certainly defend better than the Wizards did, but in Atlanta, the C’s didn’t look anything like the NBA-best defensive team they were during the regular season.

The remaining Eastern semi between the Orlando Magic and the Detroit Pistons is already off to a roaring thud. The Pistons exposed the Magic 91-72 on Saturday, as 20-20 beast Dwight Howard was limited to 12 points, eight rebounds and a bruised left thumb. Coach Flip Saunders ran Howard ragged by rotating four defenders; Detroit stayed fresh as a 6.5-point chalk and will lay another six points for the second game on Monday night.

This is Detroit basketball when things are going right. But this was a back-and-forth matchup during the regular season, each side taking two games SU and ATS. The best indication that the Pistons are “on” is that they’re 5-2 ATS in these playoffs (even with their struggles against the Sixers) and 9-2 ATS since Apr. 11. The Magic are 6-4 ATS during the same period, but they haven’t beaten Detroit in eight straight postseason games. That should be nine on Monday.

The Utah Jazz were beaten quite handily in Game 1 of their Western Conference semifinal with the Los Angeles Lakers. That’s why Utah is more desirable for bettors in Game 2.

The Lakers won Sunday’s series opener 109-98, cashing in as 8-point favorites on the strength of 38 points from Kobe Bryant. The NBA’s new Most Valuable Player made himself acquainted with the free-throw lines at Staples Center, sinking 21 of his 23 attempts. The entire Jazz team shot 22-for-30. Utah also turned the ball over 10 times in the first half and spent most of the game behind the eight-ball.

As impressive as the Lakers were Sunday on both ends of the floor, they’ve lost steam for Wednesday night’s contest. The betting odds for Game 2 have Los Angeles pegged as a 6½-point chalk with a total of 209½ points, down from 212½ in Game 1. This is a bounce-back situation for the Jazz. They have room for improvement after coming out flat in the opener – improvement in both strategy and physical fitness.

The latter deals with the quick turnaround between games for the Jazz. They got just one day of rest after closing out the Houston Rockets in their Western quarterfinal. That grace period was eaten up traveling between Salt Lake City and Los Angeles and preparing for Game 1 against the Lakers, who swept the Denver Nuggets in the first round and enjoyed five days of rest and relaxation.

Game 2 should be a truer representation of how these two teams stack up physically. The onus for Utah during this series is on Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer; neither man has played up to All-Star capacity of late, and Williams in particular needs these two days off to heal a bruised calf (courtesy of a Rafer Alston knee) and a sore tailbone.

Boozer has been playing with a sore back, although murmurs around the league suggest he’s just not performing very well. His 15.9 points per game during these playoffs is down from 23.5 points last year. Boozer committed six of those 10 first-half turnovers Sunday, although due credit should go to the Lakers for playing outstanding defense from the tip-off to the final horn.

Even with all systems go, the Lakers couldn’t keep the Jazz from mounting a strong second-half comeback. Utah climbed all the way from 19 points down to within four before Los Angeles pulled away. Boozer was a big factor in this comeback, finishing the night with 15 points, 14 rebounds and four assists. But he also fouled out with 3:28 left to go and Utah down by six.

Having Williams and Boozer refreshed figures to be worth at least an extra basket for the Jazz. They might also consider having Andre Kirilenko spend more time as Bryant’s primary defender. Right now, the more athletic Ronnie Brewer is on Bryant, but Brewer is still developing his skills in his first full season in the starting rotation. Kirilenko is a masterful defender, the best of his vast array of “glue guy” skills.

Los Angeles is riding a seven-game ATS win streak into Wednesday’s matchup. Utah is 1-4 ATS in its last five, with the under on a 5-2 roll thanks in part to Boozer’s struggles. Stellar defense has helped the under cash in four times in a row for the Lakers. This isn’t what you might expect from two of the better scoring teams in the league: Los Angeles was second in offensive efficiency during the regular season, while the Jazz were ninth.

Tip off for Game 2 is at 10:30 p.m. Eastern time, the second game of a TNT doubleheader.

Another one bites the bust. After putting up a very good fight, the Philadelphia 76ers are done for the year, losing the last three games of their series with the Detroit Pistons. While the Sixers pack up their belongings and look toward better things in 2009, the Pistons are preparing for their second-round matchup with the Orlando Magic.

One of the two Western Conference semifinals has also been decided: The New Orleans Hornets have the home-court advantage when they face the defending champion San Antonio Spurs. We could know as early as Friday night who else will advance out of the remaining three series – but we’ll definitely know by Sunday. For now, let’s look ahead at the two conference semis.

Eastern Conference
Orlando at Detroit
Game 1: Saturday, May 3, 7:30 pm (ET) TNT
The Magic were the more impressive of these two Eastern contenders in the first round. They dismantled the Toronto Raptors in five games, grabbing the cash on three occasions to improve to 9-4-1 against the spread this past month. Don’t tug on Dwight Howard’s cape; he dominated this series with 22.6 points, 18.2 rebounds and 3.8 blocks per game. But Orlando also got much better results out of point guard Jameer Nelson (17.2 points per game, 11-of-22 from downtown) than expected against Toronto’s backcourt.

Has Detroit finally found its playoff gear? The Pistons won their last three games against Philadelphia both straight up and ATS after starting the series flat as an iron. Chauncey Billups and Richard Hamilton both came up big as Detroit put a stranglehold on this series, although Rasheed Wallace continued to have his ups and downs.

The Pistons put away the Sixers on Thursday; betting odds for Saturday had yet to be posted at press time. Detroit swept Orlando last year, but that was when Rashard Lewis was still in Seattle. The Magic have made big strides since Lewis put his name on a max contract, going 52-30 SU and 50-29-3 ATS during the regular season. They split their four games against the Pistons, most recently beating them at the Palace in February by the score of 103-89. Howard was held to nine points, but the Magic shot 13-for-20 from the perimeter. That’s what it’ll take in this series.

Western Conference
San Antonio at New Orleans (-3½, 183½)
Game 1: Saturday, May 3, 10:00 pm (ET) TNT
Although the Hornets are the No. 2 seed in the West, No. 3 San Antonio is the slim series favorite at -115. Each team finished the regular season at 56-26, beating one another twice both home and away and dividing the cash down the middle. However, New Orleans was a very pleasant surprise at 50-30-2 ATS, while the Spurs are getting old and cranky at 37-43-2 ATS. The Hornets also had the higher point differential, plus-5.3 to plus-4.8.

San Antonio is getting respect from the betting public – four championships in nine years will do that. So will the impressive first-round victory over the Phoenix Suns in five games. It wasn’t easy, as the Spurs eked out three close games in the desert and split a pair at home to finish the series at 2-2-1 ATS. But this was a Suns team with title aspirations after trading for Shaquille O’Neal.

O’Neal’s talents didn’t quite mesh with coach Mike D’Antoni’s philosophy, which is why D’Antoni is expected to be looking elsewhere for employment soon. Byron Scott, on the other hand, is the 2008 NBA Coach of the Year after steering a consistent five-man starting unit through the perilous waters of the West. Chris Paul is having a brilliant season at 21.1 points and 11.6 assists per game, and he stole Jason Kidd’s act by posting a triple double in Game 5 to eliminate the Dallas Mavericks. The Hornets got paid three out of five; they figure to be even better value against the Spurs.

Nothing is going to come easy in the NBA playoffs (no, not even for the Boston Celtics). All three of Thursday’s first-round matchups saw the same result: the team that was up two games to none is now up two games to one.

Only two of these results were expected. The Toronto Raptors (-4) and the Washington Wizards (-5½) came back from their 0-2 deficits and will try to “hold serve” in Game 4. But using the tennis term to suggest the home team should naturally win is a bit of a stretch, as the Utah Jazz (-9) showed us in their shocking 94-92 loss to Houston.

Will this comeback trend continue elsewhere in the opening round? The rule of thumb says the losing team is more likely to make more efficient adjustments. In this light, a seven-game series becomes a heavyweight battle with two fighters trading punches. Or, to push the “basketball as art” metaphor, like an orchestral piece. This must be why basketball players are always talking about “tempo” and “momentum” and “rhythm.”

Let’s test that rule of thumb in Saturday’s two Game 3 matchups where the home team is down 0-2.

L.A. Lakers at Denver
Game 3: Saturday, Apr 26, 5:30 pm (ET) TNT
Andrew Bynum’s chances of playing in the postseason may look remote, but the Lakers are doing very well without their rising star. That’s the power of Pau Gasol: two double-doubles in two games against the Nuggets, including 36 points in the opener. The Lakers covered both games as 8½-point faves.

Gasol played more of a supporting role in Game 2 as the Nuggets went big, replacing Anthony Carter with Linas Kleiza. Bryant made Denver pay with a 49-point effort, extending the Lakers to 5-0 straight up and against the spread versus the Nuggets this year. The betting odds have Denver favored by one point on Saturday, so overtime is definitely on the radar screen – the total is 230 points, same as Game 2. The Over should be a relative bargain because of the higher likelihood of an extra frame.

Boston at Atlanta
Game 3: Saturday, Apr 26, 8:00 pm (ET) ESPN
The Hawks are 8-point puppies at home. If all those motivational “intangibles” about home-court advantage carry any weight, Atlanta will be treating Saturday’s game at Philips Arena like Game 7 of the NBA Finals. The Hawks will have to, because they are winless against Boston in five tries this season, going 1-4 ATS despite getting 15 points in each of the first two playoff games.

The under got paid in each of those five games, driven primarily by Boston’s top-ranked defense. The Celtics have the newly crowned Defensive POY Kevin Garnett holding court inside, balanced by the hard work of point guard Rajon Rondo. Rondo won’t be an “underrated” player much longer the way he’s shutting down Mike Bibby’s offense: 17 points and two assists in two games. The total is this series has dipped from 190½ to 189 and down to 187 points for Game 3.

New Orleans at Dallas
Game 4: Sunday, Apr 27, 9:30 pm (ET) TNT
Friday’s Game 3 in the Hornets-Mavericks series isn’t technically a “must-win,” but it may as well be. Very few teams in pro sports have come back from down 0-3; if you dig sports psychology, it’s easy to draw the conclusion that Dallas is one of the least likely teams to man up, given their playoff collapses of seasons past.

Which is why they traded for Jason Kidd. Although New Orleans point guard and MVP candidate Chris Paul ran circles around Kidd in the first two games, the Mavs are 5-point home favorites on Friday. What more does Paul (28.39 PER) have to do to besides dropping 30 points and 10 assists to get the kind of respect Kidd (16.69 PER) does? Sweeping the Mavs on Sunday would be a start.

We’ve seen this movie before. The Utah Jazz and the Houston Rockets are matched up in the first round of the NBA Western Conference playoffs for the second year in a row. And for the second year in a row, the Rockets have home-court advantage.

There is one important difference, however. After losing two games in Houston to open the series in 2007, the Jazz head home in 2008 with a 2-0 series lead going into Thursday’s Game 3 at the former Delta Center. Utah is an 8.5-point chalk with a total of 181. Pinnacle's betting odds for the series show Houston +1768 and Utah -2748.

Things don’t look good for Houston supporters. The Jazz have the best home record in the NBA at 37-4 (29-12 ATS). The Rockets were one of the four teams to beat them, but that was back in November when Yao Ming was still in the starting rotation. His season-ending broken foot is the main reason Houston is two games in the hole.

Tracy McGrady has done a commendable job keeping the Rockets competitive and guiding them into the playoffs. But “commendable” is not the high praise we’re used to giving T-Mac. He was an MVP candidate and a two-time scoring champion with Orlando; this season, after recurrent back problems, McGrady is ranked No. 46 in Player Efficiency Rating at 18.50. Utah shooting guard Ronnie Brewer was just two spots behind McGrady at 18.46 PER.

It’s not like Brewer is actually canceling out his opposite number. McGrady’s numbers have gone up out of necessity since Yao’s injury. But his field-goal percentage has dropped in each of the past four months, from 44.3 percent in January to 37.5 percent in April. McGrady’s touch from long range has virtually disappeared at 25.6 percent since the All-Star Game. He’s 1-for-9 after the first two games against Utah.

McGrady appears to be tiring under this heavy offensive load, even with a vastly improved Houston bench. A big part of the problem, bigger than the betting public may realize, is the loss of point guard Rafer Alston to a hamstring injury. He’s officially listed as day-to-day and hopes to play in Game 3. Although overmatched at 13.30 PER (15 is the league average), Alston is still a contributor at a position where the Rockets now find themselves thin. Bobby Jackson (13.57 PER) and rookie Aaron Brooks (13.06 PER) are doing their best, but their best doesn’t come close to matching up with Utah’s Deron Williams (20.82 PER).

Houston is still a solid team, warts and all. But this series is more about how strong the Utah Jazz have become. They were second in the West with a point differential of plus-6.9, behind only the Lakers at plus-7.3. Williams improved on his breakout sophomore campaign with 20.2 points and 11.3 assists per 40 minutes. The Jazz are also getting better results from Andrei Kirilenko, who brushed off last year’s abysmal season by connecting on a career-high 50.6 percent of his field-goal attempts. Brewer’s rise as a second-year player and the trade for Kyle Korver (37.5 percent on 3-pointers) further illustrate Utah’s ascension to what could be NBA greatness.

But first there’s the matter of taking care of Houston. Thursday’s matchup starts at 10:30 p.m. Eastern time; TNT has the broadcast rights. The Jazz have beaten the Rockets eight times out of their past 10 meetings, going 9-1 ATS along the way. Neither team is particularly fleet of foot, but the Rockets are agonizingly slow on offense at 92.9 possessions per game. The under is 6-1 in Houston’s last seven outings and 6-2 for the Jazz.

Maybe they should make the NBA playoffs a single-elimination tournament, like March Madness. We saw enough drama during Game 1 of the first round to last a whole best-of-seven series. And we know the Atlanta Hawks have about as much chance of advancing to the second round as Mount St. Mary’s had of beating North Carolina last month.

Even less, actually. Here are the updated series prices heading into Game 2:

Boston (-20500) vs. Atlanta
Detroit (-600) vs. Philadelphia
Orlando (-600) vs. Toronto
Cleveland (-170) vs. Washington
L.A. Lakers (-1000) vs. Denver
New Orleans (-230) vs. Dallas
San Antonio (-200) vs. Phoenix
Utah (-605) vs. Houston

The series that sticks out like a sore thumb is the Pistons-76ers matchup, where Detroit opened at –1200, then promptly lost Game 1 at the Palace on Sunday. But that game paled in comparison to Saturday’s double-overtime epic between the Spurs and Suns. Let’s see what the post-mortem reveals.

No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers vs. No. 2 Detroit Pistons
Game 2, Wednesday, Apr 23, 7:30 pm (ET) NBA TV 
Although Philadelphia figured to give Detroit something to think about in this series, Sunday’s 90-86 comeback win by the Sixers remains a major upset – Philly was a 9.5-point road dog.

Sixers forward Andre Iguodala said it best after the game. “That's Detroit,” Iguodala told the Associated Press. “They turn it on and turn it off. We just kept fighting the whole way.”

Absolutely true, and not the smartest thing to say after beating the former world champions. Pistons coach Flip Saunders will no doubt use Iguodala’s words as bulletin-board material to motivate his players for Wednesday’s Game 2.

The Sixers are now 4-2 straight up and 5-1 against the spread in their last six meetings with Detroit. Andre Miller is one of the few point guards in the league who can handle Chauncey Billups; in Game 1, Billups was just 3-for-9 from the field for 14 points, while Miller scored 20 at the other end. Power forwards Thaddeus Young and Reggie Evans combined for 21 points and 17 rebounds, for which Rasheed Wallace is rightly taking blame. Detroit’s fate hangs in the balance of his emotional state.

Philly’s second-half outburst didn’t prevent the final score from going under the posted total of 179; the under is now 10-3 for the Pistons and 8-6 for the Sixers over the past four weeks. Detroit ran the slowest offense in the NBA this year at 89.9 possessions per game. Philadelphia was in the middle of the pack at 93.1 possessions, slow enough to keep the under profitable.

No. 6 Phoenix Suns vs. No. 3 San Antonio Spurs
Game 2, Tuesday, Apr 22, 9:30 pm (ET) TNT
Phoenix had the Spurs well in hand during the first three quarters of their series opener out West. But San Antonio kept chipping away, keeping the game close enough to hit the game-tying 3 in regulation (shades of Mario Chalmers) and again in the first overtime period. San Antonio escaped with a 117-115 victory, minus the cash as a 4.5-point home chalk.

“We had the game won a few times and just weren’t tough enough or disciplined enough to make every single play when it counted,” Steve Nash told the AP after the final buzzer.

That’s an honest assessment, as one can always expect from Nash. But the two-time MVP is also rumored to be suffering from the flu. He nonetheless managed to play 45 minutes in Game 1, scoring 25 points on 9-for-20 shooting with 13 assists.

Tim Duncan was obviously worn out after 51 minutes (40 points, 15 rebounds) of work. Game 2 is Tuesday at the AT&T Center; neither of these teams has a particularly deep bench, and Brian Skinner showed what can happen when you give him two minutes against the Spurs: 1-for-4 from the free-throw line as San Antonio went on a 9-3 run to end the first half.

Shaquille O’Neal and Boris Diaw were in foul trouble during the first half – O’Neal played just four minutes – which is why Skinner was on the floor to begin with. San Antonio cannot depend on getting the benefit of the doubt from referees in Game 2.

March Madness gave us four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four. This year’s NBA playoffs five us eight 50-win teams in the Western Conference. Any of them could make it to the Finals. That doesn’t mean they’re all equally good, though. This is the time of year when those big-name trades are supposed to pay off for the Lakers, Suns and Mavericks. We’ll see starting this weekend.

No. 6 Phoenix Suns vs. No. 3 San Antonio Spurs
Game 1: Saturday, April 19, 3:00 pm (ET) ABC
This is exactly what the Suns had in mind when they traded for Shaquille O’Neal. That move paid off during the regular season, keeping Phoenix competitive at 18-11 (14-13-1 ATS) with the Big Cactus in the mix. Two of those wins were against the Spurs; Phoenix was an upset winner both at home (+1.5) and away (+7). The odds have shifted to Suns +4 for Saturday’s series opener at the AT&T Center.

The Spurs remain the defending champions and the favorites to win this series at –140. San Antonio is 34-7 (22-17-2 ATS) at home and went 12-3 (9-6 ATS) to wrap up the regular season. Brent Barry has returned, but the additions of Kurt Thomas and Damon Stoudamire haven’t added as much as hoped to the dubious Spurs bench. If Thomas can’t defend O’Neal, this will be a short series.

No. 7 Dallas Mavericks vs. No. 2 New Orleans Hornets
Game 1: Saturday, April 19, 7:00 pm (ET) ESPN
Dallas may have over-reacted to the Pau Gasol trade by sending Devin Harris and friends to New Jersey for Jason Kidd. The Mavericks had to scramble to make the postseason; Dirk Nowitzki came back early from a high ankle sprain and helped Dallas win five of eight down the stretch (at 4-4 ATS). If Kidd has any kind of playoff mojo left over from his good years with the Nets, this will be a classic series.

If he doesn’t, Chris Paul will walk all over him. He’s the best point guard in the NBA, posting MVP-quality numbers at 20.2 points, 11.1 assists and 2.6 steals per 36 minutes. Paul’s an impressive defender. His turnovers are low (2.5 per game). He hits 85 percent of his free throws. And he’s why the Hornets are –140 to win this series and 4.5-point home faves to take Game 1 on Saturday.

No. 5 Houston Rockets vs. No. 4 Utah Jazz
Game 1: Saturday, April 19, 9:30 pm (ET) ESPN
This is not a recording. Utah beat Houston in seven games last year, and that was with Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady both in the lineup. This time, Yao is injured, although the Rockets are still a capable team at 19-7 (16-9-1 ATS) since their 7-foot-6 franchise center was lost for the season to a stress fracture. Houston will also have to play Saturday’s series opener without point guard Rafer Alston (strained right hamstring).

The Jazz might be the No. 4 seed, but they have the second-best point differential in the West at plus-6.9. Utah has covered seven of the last eight games against the Rockets stretching back to last year’s playoffs. The combination of Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur is deadly down low, and Kyle Korver leads the team in true shooting at 62.9 percent since leaving Philadelphia. Utah is a 1-point road dog on Saturday, but –220 to keep McGrady stuck in first-round playoff hell.

No. 8 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 1 Los Angeles Lakers
Game 1: Sunday, April 20, 3:00 pm (ET) ABC
It’s always fun when Kobe Bryant goes back to Denver. But this time he’ll have a championship quality team with him – even sans Andrew Bynum. The Lakers fired the first salvo in the trade wars by trading spare parts to Memphis for Pau Gasol; Los Angeles is 27-9 (20-15 ATS) since adding the 7-foot Spaniard to the lineup. They’re also the biggest chalk in the West at –570 to win their first-round series over the Denver Nuggets.

Denver fought off Golden State’s playoff advances by going 13-6 (12-7 ATS) down the stretch. Other than Nene Hilario’s groin injury, the Nuggets are at full strength. They could still use a point guard, however. Anthony Carter, rejuvenated though he may be, is still below average with a 12.8 Player Efficiency Rating. The Lakers abused this Denver team three times in a row this year. The beatings shall continue.

Now that we’ve gotten those 82 glorified NBA exhibition games out of the way, it’s time for the games that really matter. Although there are many who believe it’s a foregone conclusion that the Boston Celtics will win the Eastern Conference. That might be stretching things, but we can say that Boston’s first-round opponents make David look like Goliath.

No. 8 Atlanta Hawks vs. No. 1 Boston Celtics
Game 1: Sunday, April 20, 8:30 pm (ET) TNT
The Hawks are +4000 to win this series and 15-point puppies in Sunday’s opener at the Garden. Atlanta is a young and improving team, but only 15-17 (13-19 against the spread) since Mike Bibby’s arrival from Sacramento. That record includes a pair of losses to the Celtics, with Atlanta cashing in on the road but coming up empty at the Philips Arena.

Boston (-6000 to win) is the best defensive team in the NBA, allowing just 96.2 points per 100 possessions. The offense has been less impressive at No. 10 in the efficiency rankings, but these numbers don’t reflect the value of late-season additions Sam Cassell and P.J. Brown. The reinforced Celtics are 11-1 (10-2 ATS) in their last 12 games.

No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers vs. No. 2 Detroit Pistons
Game 1: Sunday, April 20, 6:00 pm (ET) TNT
Detroit would be getting a lot more attention these days if it weren’t for the Celtics. Nobody in the Western Conference matched Detroit’s 59 victories during the regular season. The Pistons were 34-7 at the Palace, where they open on Sunday as 9.5-point faves against Philadelphia. The total is a low, low 179 in anticipation of a defensive struggle.

The Sixers were able to continue their not-appalling level of play in their first full season after the Allen Iverson trade, finishing at 40-42 this year – good enough in the East. Andre Igoudala is developing into one of the true stars of the NBA. He led the team with 19.9 points per game, providing the spark to Philly’s 3-2 record (4-1 ATS) in the last five Pistons matchups. The Sixers may have some fight in this series at +1000.

No. 6 Toronto Raptors vs. No. 3 Orlando Magic
Game 1: Sunday, April 20, 12:30 pm (ET) TNT
The Raptors are the wild card in the Eastern deck. More was expected in the second year of Bryan Colangelo’s regime, but a string of injuries and the non-development of Andrea Bargnani left the Raptors treading water at 41-41 (39-42-1 ATS). The team is healthy in time for the postseason and priced at +250 to advance to the second round.

Toronto did itself a big favor by grabbing the sixth seed in the East. The 52-30 Magic (50-29-3 ATS) are still the favorites and deservedly so at –270; however, the Raps are 5-2 SU and ATS versus Orlando over the past two seasons. The backcourt of Jameer Nelson (15.5 Player Efficiency Rating) and Maurice Evans is (14.0 PER) is average at best.

No. 5 Washington Wizards vs. No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers
Game 1: Saturday, April 19, 12:30 pm (ET) ESPN
The Wizards did a better job of overcoming injuries than the Raptors, which is why they’re in the playoffs even after losing Gilbert Arenas for most of the regular season. Caron Butler is still gimpy with a bruised right knee, but this is as close the Wizards get to being at full strength. Washington is 5-2 (4-3 ATS) heading into the first round as a slight +105 underdog.

Last year’s Eastern champions aren’t getting much support these days. Results from the roster shuffle at the trade deadline have been less than impressive: just 14-13 (12-15 ATS), although Cleveland has endured more than its own share of hardship with injuries to Daniel Gibson, Sasha Pavlovic, Ben Wallace and, yes, LeBron James. It’ll be up to LeBron to put this team on his back again.

Few things are certain in life. Even fewer things are certain in the NBA, where playoff spots are still up for grabs in both conferences.

Most teams have two games remaining to do something about it. Four others have just one apiece, including the current No. 8 seed in the Western Conference, the Denver Nuggets (49-32 straight up, 44-37 against the spread).

Denver beat the Houston Rockets 111-94 Sunday night at the Pepsi Center, cashing in as a 6½-point chalk to move half a game up on the Golden State Warriors (48-32 SU, 34-46 ATS). Before Denver’s victory, both teams were 25-1 on the futures market to win the NBA championship. Those odds were due for a major revision; the Nuggets will clinch with a win over the visiting Memphis Grizzlies (22-58 SU, 34-45-1 ATS) on Wednesday. Denver is 3-0 SU and ATS against the Grizz this year.

The complexion of that game will swing drastically depending on what happens Monday night when the Warriors hit the desert to play the Phoenix Suns (53-27 SU, 38-39-3 ATS). Golden State needs to win both this matchup and Wednesday’s season finale in Oakland against the Seattle SuperSonics (19-62 SU, 38-40-3 ATS). Beating Seattle is one thing; Phoenix is 13-5 SU and 11-6-1 ATS over the past 18 games, making the Shaquille O’Neal trade look like a worthy gamble for the playoffs.

The Suns were the No. 6 seed in the West at press time. They could still overtake the Houston Rockets (54-26 SU, 46-32-2 ATS) for the fifth seed, but that wouldn’t be enough to give Phoenix home-court advantage of any kind in the playoffs. And there isn’t enough to choose from among their potential first-round opponents for the Suns to care too much about seeding. They may decide to give O’Neal, Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire a quick hook Monday night – offering Golden State supporters a light at the end of the tunnel.

Playoff seeding will be much more crucial in the top-heavy East. There is a logjam for the 5-6-7 seeds; the Washington Wizards (42-38 SU, 45-35 ATS) are very close to nailing down fifth place and a first-round matchup against the No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers (44-36 SU, 36-44 ATS). The Cavs are having less success than Phoenix with their playoff makeover, going 7-9 SU and 5-11 ATS this past month. Washington has won three of five (2-3 ATS) with Gilbert Arenas back in the lineup.

Only the Toronto Raptors (40-40 SU, 39-40-1 ATS) can catch Washington for fifth place; Toronto owns the tiebreaker, while the Philadelphia 76ers (40-40 SU, 43-34-3 ATS) do not. However, the Raps are struggling of late even with Chris Bosh healthy and playing well. Toronto is 6-7 SU and 5-8 ATS since Bosh’s return and threatening to fall behind the Sixers into seventh. That would leave the Raptors playing the Detroit Pistons (57-23 SU, 43-36-1 ATS) in the opening round. The Pistons were busy Sunday beating Toronto 91-84 at the Palace, covering as 5½-point faves and using their bench players for most of the final quarter – not in garbage time, but with the game still up for grabs.

At least Detroit has a chance of remaining stuck in low gear after going 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games. Whoever gets the No. 8 seed will earn an automatic drubbing at the hands of the best team in the NBA, the Boston Celtics (64-16 SU, 50-28-2 ATS). They’re the only team over the past five years to reach 50 ATS wins, an amazing feat for one of the most public teams in the league.

The Atlanta Hawks (37-43 SU, 37-42-1 ATS) are two games up on the ninth-place Indiana Pacers (35-45 SU, 38-41-1 ATS) for a shot at immortality versus the Celtics with two games to play. But the Hawks haven’t clinched yet; their “magic number” is one, since Indiana has the tiebreaker. Monday night’s Pacers-Wizards matchup at the Verizon Center should be extra spicy. There was no early line, thanks to Caron Butler’s day-to-day status with a bruised right knee.