NFL Betting Articles

The NFL offseason is officially over. For handicappers, that is. The brief interlude between the Super Bowl and the start of the Scouting Combine is over. How serious is the NFL about selling these glorified auditions to interested parties? Check out their tantalizingly in-depth coverage on the NFL Network and on the flagship website. If Jake Long stubs his toe or tests positive for lactose intolerance, you’ll hear about it.

What we have heard of Jake Long at the combine is that the former Michigan offensive tackle has been very impressive: first at his position in bench press, vertical jump and the 3-cone drill. It could be enough, as ESPN’s Pat Yasinskas suggests, to convince the Miami Dolphins to draft Long first overall and give John Beck (or whomever ends up with the Dolphins QB job) some badly-needed protection.

But Bill Parcells has more pressing issues on defense to deal with – the league’s worst defense last year in terms of efficiency. Either LSU tackle Glenn Dorsey or Virginia DE Chris Long has reason to be No. 1 on Miami’s list. Dorsey is the better prospect, but revealed last Sunday that he suffered a hairline fracture to his right tibia during a weight-room accident back in 2006. That might be just spooky enough to convince Parcells to go Long.

Whomever Miami drafts, it’s going to take a while for Parcells to rebuild this 1-15 (5-8-3 against the spread) ruin of a football team. That’s why you’ll find the Fish at the bottom of the NFL futures market, priced at 150-1 next to the Atlanta Falcons. You won’t find either of those teams, however, in Chance’s Top 10 Super Bowl XLIII value picks.

1. Philadelphia Eagles (45-1): Simply too much talent on this team to ignore at these odds. Finished last year with 9.5 Estimated Wins while going 8-8.

2. San Diego Chargers (10-1): Figured things out as the 2007 season progressed under new coach Norv Turner. Philip Rivers proved the doubters wrong with a superb playoff drive.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-1): The Jags don’t have quite as much value as years past after David Garrard’s breakout campaign. But Gregg Williams has arrived to fix the rather average Jacksonville defense.

4. Tennessee Titans (30-1): Even with Albert Haynesworth’s injury woes and Vince Young’s occasional growing pains, the Titans were good enough to go 10-6 (8-8 ATS) last year. They have the top-ranked defense in the NFL and upside with Young at the helm.

5. Indianapolis Colts (6-1): The Manning Dynasty hasn’t reached the end of its cycle just yet. Peyton has an excellent crack at a second Super Bowl ring with this well-run Colts organization.

6. Chicago Bears (25-1): When you have one of the most fearsome defenses around (when healthy) and Devin Hester leading the top special-teams unit in the NFL, you only need some consistency from Rex Grossman, not heroics.

7. Dallas Cowboys (6-1): The Cowboys are on the cusp of greatness, but how much money are they willing to pony up to sign UFAs like Julius Jones and Ken Hamlin?

8. Green Bay Packers (7-1): Green Bay’s short odds suggest this team was more than just a flash in the pan in 2007. Nearly every Packer except Brett Favre is a young, developing player with a bright future.

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (28-1): The Bucs managed to stay competitive even after OT Luke Petitgout and RB Carnell Williams were lost for the season. Jon Gruden still has plenty of Super Bowl coaching mojo.

10. New England Patriots (5-2): And we thought the Patriots were motivated last year.

Remember when the NFC was king? If you’re a sports fan over 30 years of age, you probably have fond memories (or a deep-seated hatred) for all those great teams from San Francisco, Dallas and New York.

Well, those times are back. The Giants are still glowing after winning Super Bowl XLII, and the NFC put the cherry on top this past Sunday with a 42-30 victory over the AFC at the Pro Bowl.

Dallas and New York have both made big strides toward the 2008 championship by re-signing their top assistants to sizeable contracts: Jason Garrett for the Cowboys and Steve Spagnuolo for the Giants. These were two of the hottest names on the coaching carousel, but Garrett re-upped with Dallas for $3 million, while “Spags” will make over $2 million a year for the next three years. Garrett is now the highest paid offensive co-ordinator in the NFL, while Spagnuolo is the highest paid defensive co-ordinator.

The Spagnuolo signing came after the Giants opened at 12-1 on the futures market to defend their title at Super Bowl XLIII. That line might not budge for a while until more action comes in; Giants fans who felt slighted to see Big Blue as the seventh favorite might feel emboldened to lay some cash on New York now that Spags is back to guide the top pass rush in the NFL.

Dallas is the top Super Bowl favorite from the NFC at 6-1, followed by Green Bay at 7-1. These were expected to be the two teams fighting it out for a chance to meet the Patriots in Glendale, but the Giants upset all three to carry home the Vince Lombardi Trophy. New England, naturally, is the 2008 Super Bowl favorite at 5-2.

Once Spagnuolo decided to stay with Big Blue, the dominoes started to fall. Former Seattle Seahawks QB Jim Zorn was hired Saturday to be the next head coach of the Washington Redskins, replacing Joe Gibbs. Zorn had just been hired two weeks before that to be Washington’s new offensive co-ordinator, but got the upgrade after Spags took his name out of contention. The buzz in D.C. surrounding Zorn’s hire: not terribly complimentary toward owner Daniel Snyder. There is a palpable fear that the ‘Skins will regress to the laughingstock they had become in the 11 seasons between Gibbs’ first and second tours of duty.

The Baltimore Ravens also have a rookie head coach/former QB: Jim Harbaugh, who takes over from the departed Brian Billick. On Monday, the Ravens hired North Carolina defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano away from the college ranks to join Harbaugh’s staff. The Cowboys did some poaching of their own over the weekend, taking newly minted Texas A&M defensive coordinator Reggie Herring away from Mike Sherman. Herring was most recently seen coaching Arkansas at the Cotton Bowl after Houston Nutt’s dismissal.

Nobody expected the Atlanta Falcons to come out of their hiring process smelling like a rose, but that appears to be the case with yet another ex-QB: Thomas Dimitroff, a former pivot up north with the University of Guelph Gryphons. Dimitroff moves over from the New England scouting department to be the new Atlanta GM, and former defensive coordinator Mike Smith is Dimitroff’s new head coach.

Atlanta opened last on the 2008 Super Bowl futures market at 150-1, tied with the Miami Dolphins, who have cut nine players in the first of what will likely be several purges under Bill Parcells. Among the cuts; QB Trent Green and WR Marty Booker. Parcells has created plenty of roster space for when the free-agent signing period begins on Feb. 29.

The Dolphins are also on the clock with the first overall selection in the 2008 NFL Draft, taking place in New York on April 26-27. EPSN and the NFL Network will split the TV coverage.

All those accomplishments, down the drain. But the New England Patriots will live to fight another day.

New England went into Super Bowl XLII as 12½-point favorites against the New York Giants. The Pats were 18-0, but had covered just one spread in their last eight games. Make it one in their last nine. New England’s offensive line failed to hold up in a 17-14 loss, spoiling what had been one of the finest seasons ever recorded in the NFL.

The Patriots broke just about every major offensive record in the books to finish the regular season at 16-0, the first team to go into the playoffs unscathed since the 1972 Miami Dolphins. Tom Brady threw 50 touchdown passes. Randy Moss caught 23 of them. This juggernaut led New England to an 8-0 ATS start and prompted oddsmakers to start applying double-digit spreads to every single Patriots game from Week 11 on. It was too much chalk even for mighty New England to bear.

With Sunday’s monumental upset on the biggest sports stage in North America, this NFL season belongs to the New York Giants. They completely defied the odds and expectations by making it all the way to the Super Bowl despite going 10-6 SU and ATS. All four of their playoff victories were upsets, and New York got to the big game by beating the two top teams in the NFC: the Dallas Cowboys (13-3 SU, 9-7 ATS) and the Green Bay Packers (13-3 SU, 12-3-1 ATS).

Once the Super Bowl matchup was set, handicappers were quick to jump on the Giants bandwagon. They recognized the maturation of Eli Manning and the outstanding work Steve Spagnuolo was doing in his first year as defensive coordinator. The addition of Ahmad Bradshaw to the backfield also paid off, as he romped for five yards per carry to keep the chains moving and keep Brady on the sidelines. New York was 7-1 ATS heading into Glendale – no wonder Big Blue picked up 85 percent of the action, according to the betting reports.

While other teams court Spagnuolo for their head coaching vacancies – Washington was next in line at press time – the Giants are only 12-1 on the futures market to claim back-to-back Vince Lombardi trophies. New England remains the top dog at 5-2, well ahead of the Cowboys and the Indianapolis Colts at 6-1. The Packers are 7-1; the Jacksonville Jaguars and the San Diego Chargers, each coming off excellent 11-win campaigns, are 10-1.

New York’s chances of repeating depend substantially on whether Spagnuolo takes a promotion elsewhere. The Cowboys avoided a similar crisis when they kept offensive coordinator Jason Garrett in-house. Garrett will be the highest-paid assistant in NFL history when he earns $3 million in 2008. He also gets a new title as assistant head coach. Garrett will presumably take over for Wade Phillips in the not-too-distant future; more importantly for Dallas supporters, Tony Romo will not have to learn a new system after posting a 97.4 passer rating this year, fifth best in the league.

Brett Favre (95.7 QB rating, his best since 1996) isn’t saying much about his plans for what would be his 17th full season in the NFL. There had been reports that Favre would play in 2008, but that was before the Packers (-7.5) were upended 23-20 by the Giants in the NFC title game, in overtime no less. But with Green Bay’s young team making so much progress so quickly, Favre has every reason to stick around for another shot at glory.

As for last year’s Super Bowl champs, the Colts are still nursing their wounds from that 28-24 loss to the Chargers (+10½) in the Divisional round. But at least Indy fans can point to Week 9, when the Colts gave the Patriots their first tough game of the season and started New England’s descent from perfection. They’ll be strong candidates to meet again in next year’s AFC Championship.

All those accomplishments, down the drain. But the New England Patriots will live to fight another day.

New England went into Super Bowl XLII as 12½-point favorites against the New York Giants. The Pats were 18-0, but had covered just one spread in their last eight games. Make it one in their last nine. New England’s offensive line failed to hold up in a 17-14 loss, spoiling what had been one of the finest seasons ever recorded in the NFL.

The Patriots broke just about every major offensive record in the books to finish the regular season at 16-0, the first team to go into the playoffs unscathed since the 1972 Miami Dolphins. Tom Brady threw 50 touchdown passes. Randy Moss caught 23 of them. This juggernaut led New England to an 8-0 ATS start and prompted oddsmakers to start applying double-digit spreads to every single Patriots game from Week 11 on. It was too much chalk even for mighty New England to bear.

With Sunday’s monumental upset on the biggest sports stage in North America, this NFL season belongs to the New York Giants. They completely defied the odds and expectations by making it all the way to the Super Bowl despite going 10-6 SU and ATS. All four of their playoff victories were upsets, and New York got to the big game by beating the two top teams in the NFC: the Dallas Cowboys (13-3 SU, 9-7 ATS) and the Green Bay Packers (13-3 SU, 12-3-1 ATS).

Once the Super Bowl matchup was set, handicappers were quick to jump on the Giants bandwagon. They recognized the maturation of Eli Manning and the outstanding work Steve Spagnuolo was doing in his first year as defensive coordinator. The addition of Ahmad Bradshaw to the backfield also paid off, as he romped for five yards per carry to keep the chains moving and keep Brady on the sidelines. New York was 7-1 ATS heading into Glendale – no wonder Big Blue picked up 85 percent of the action, according to the betting reports.

While other teams court Spagnuolo for their head coaching vacancies – Washington was next in line at press time – the Giants are only 12-1 on the futures market to claim back-to-back Vince Lombardi trophies. New England remains the top dog at 5-2, well ahead of the Cowboys and the Indianapolis Colts at 6-1. The Packers are 7-1; the Jacksonville Jaguars and the San Diego Chargers, each coming off excellent 11-win campaigns, are 10-1.

New York’s chances of repeating depend substantially on whether Spagnuolo takes a promotion elsewhere. The Cowboys avoided a similar crisis when they kept offensive coordinator Jason Garrett in-house. Garrett will be the highest-paid assistant in NFL history when he earns $3 million in 2008. He also gets a new title as assistant head coach. Garrett will presumably take over for Wade Phillips in the not-too-distant future; more importantly for Dallas supporters, Tony Romo will not have to learn a new system after posting a 97.4 passer rating this year, fifth best in the league.

Brett Favre (95.7 QB rating, his best since 1996) isn’t saying much about his plans for what would be his 17th full season in the NFL. There had been reports that Favre would play in 2008, but that was before the Packers (-7.5) were upended 23-20 by the Giants in the NFC title game, in overtime no less. But with Green Bay’s young team making so much progress so quickly, Favre has every reason to stick around for another shot at glory.

As for last year’s Super Bowl champs, the Colts are still nursing their wounds from that 28-24 loss to the Chargers (+10½) in the Divisional round. But at least Indy fans can point to Week 9, when the Colts gave the Patriots their first tough game of the season and started New England’s descent from perfection. They’ll be strong candidates to meet again in next year’s AFC Championship.

There is a light at the end of the Media Day tunnel. Super Bowl Sunday is almost here, and it should be well worth the wait when the New England Patriots meet the New York Giants in Glendale, AZ.

Both teams are as healthy as possible coming into this matchup on two weeks of rest. The Giants could still use Jeremy Shockey’s services at tight end, but Kevin Boss has taken advantage of the job opening with a pair of touchdown catches – just one fewer than Shockey. Tom Brady’s high ankle sprain appears to be a non-issue, although nobody trusts the Patriots when it comes to these matters.

Between the extra week off and the comfortable indoor conditions at the University of Phoenix Stadium, Super Bowl XLII is being played under as optimal conditions as one could ask for. There will be no excuses for the Patriots if they lose this game and fail to complete the dream 19-0 season. New England is favored by 12 points with a total of 54; books are bracing for a flood of public money this weekend that could push the line back up to 14 points, where it opened in Las Vegas.

The Patriots have had considerable trouble with chalk during the second half of the season. After starting the year at 8-0 against the spread and crushing everything in their path, the Pats are on a 1-7 ATS slide, with their lone victory (34-13 over the inconsistent Steelers) attached to their lowest spread of 10½ points.

New York, in sharp contrast, is rolling in dough at 7-1 ATS since Thanksgiving. This has been a year of change for the Giants; RB Tiki Barber retired in order to take potshots at his former teammates on national television, while Tom Coughlin has been forced to become a kinder, gentler head coach.

Perhaps most importantly, this is the first year for the Giants under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. His influence has sunk in to the point where New York has the best pass rush in the league (53 sacks, 8.8 percent sack rate) and Spagnuolo’s name has been linked to the head coaching vacancy in Washington.

As potent as the Giants’ defense has stayed down the stretch, they couldn’t stop the Patriots from scoring 38 points in Week 17. That is how good this New England offense is. Brady has every tool a quarterback could wish for: stout offensive line, wideouts galore, tight ends who can block and score, and a varied running game. Brady even gets to throw touchdowns to Mike Vrabel now and then. It’s much the same Charlie Weis-installed offense that has already won three Super Bowls, only with more talent. The over is 11-6-1 for the Patriots this year.

There probably isn’t much more the Giants can be asked to do to stop Brady and the Pats; unless they get some fumble luck, it will be up to Eli Manning to play at the same efficient level he has throughout the playoffs. Manning has yet to throw a pick in three games after throwing 20 during the regular season. His accuracy rate has jumped and the Giants are enjoying much more success in the red zone: Manning threw four TDs against New England in Week 17. Another game like that and the Giants should at least have another payday to add to their 13-6 record.

Kick off is at 6:30 p.m. Eastern time with FOX delivering the broadcast.

This is the kind of expansion NFL fans can support. The list of Super Bowl props for Sunday’s big game has mushroomed to biblical proportions.

You can bet on just about anything even remotely related to the matchup between the New England Patriots and the New York Giants. The props market is a microcosm of the Super Bowl broadcast itself: the entertainment and the commercials are just as important as the football.

The standard prop bets are still available, thankfully. You can wager on things like the total number of pass interceptions by both teams (under 2½ is drawing big chalk at –250) or whether there will be a successful 2-point conversion (No is priced at –800). Some of these bets have more value than others, enough that many sharp handicappers who normally avoid exotic bets will take a look at the props list.

Sometimes the bets will contradict themselves from an odds standpoint. Here’s a Super Bowl prop that merits some attention:

What will the surname initial of the first touchdown scorer be?

• I – M  +110
• A – H  +150
• N – Z  +175

The first grouping includes three of the top five favorites in the prop bet for which individual will score the first TD: Randy Moss (+400), Laurence Maroney (+600) and Brandon Jacobs (+800). Those three players alone add up to +156. But the only other player on the board in that category is Eli Manning at +2200. Getting everyone named I through M at +110 isn’t much of a bargain in comparison.

A little bit of math (made more simple if you have an odds calculator handy – online tools link) and some other rudimentary skills can help you safely navigate these football-based props. The non-football bets are more of an exercise in surfing the pop culture zeitgeist, making the occasional smart choice but keeping the emphasis on having fun.

What song will Tom Petty open with?
Petty is this year’s halftime entertainment in Glendale; FOX advertised this fact during previous NFL games using “Runnin' Down a Dream” off the 1989 album Full Moon Fever. That’s a strong indicator the song will at least be part of what will be a short set, although a medley like the one Prince performed last year is certainly possible.

“Runnin' Down a Dream” is the favorite at +110, followed by the 1977 classic “American Girl” at +175.

Color of liquid winning head coach is doused in?
Football lore has it that Bill Parcells got the first Gatorade shower in 1985, courtesy of Jim Burt and Harry Carson, when the Giants beat the Washington Redskins 17-3 during a midseason game. The Gatorade was orange (+200), as it was when Parcells took a bath after winning Super Bowl XXI. But Bill Belichick was doused in a clear liquid (+300) after winning Super Bowl XXXIX over the Eagles.

Halftime commercial to have highest rating
Budweiser is the big favorite at –180, followed by godaddy.com at +275. Last year’s winner was a commercial by Hewlett-Packard; the Bud Light ads didn’t even crack the Top 3. So Anheuser-Busch has reportedly taken out nine (!) Super Bowl ads this year; Bud should be the value pick here by sheer volume alone.

Length of National Anthem
American Idol winner Jordin Sparks will sing the Star-Spangled Banner at Super Bowl XLII, presumably because FOX is the television host for both programs. The over/under for this prop is 103.5 seconds. Sparks took about 102 seconds to complete the anthem at Game 1 of the 2007 NBA Finals between the San Antonio Spurs and the Cleveland Cavaliers.

We didn’t get our expected Brady vs. Manning matchup in the AFC title game. We’ll get one at the Super Bowl instead.

The New England Patriots have one more stop on the road to perfection: Glendale, Arizona and Super Bowl XLII. New England continued its undefeated season with a 21-12 victory over the San Diego Chargers. However, the Pats once again failed to cover the spread, 14 points in this case. That leaves New England at 10-8 against the spread on the season and 2-8 ATS since Week 8.

The Chargers’ defense kept this game close until the end. They picked off Tom Brady three times, something that hadn’t happened all year to the league MVP. But Brady was still able to engineer three touchdown drives, while San Diego’s four trips deep into Patriots’ territory resulted in four Nate Kaeding field goals. Losing LaDainian Tomlinson in the first quarter to the effects of last week’s knee injury may have been the difference maker in this contest. His opposite number, Laurence Maroney, rushed for 122 yards and took control of the field in the second half.

Second-half rushing was just as important to this year’s NFC champions. The New York Giants got 63 yards and a touchdown from No. 2 tailback Ahmad Bradshaw, winning the battle of field position and keeping the Green Bay offense on the sidelines. The Giants survived a wild 23-20 overtime win over the Packers (-7) and continued their mind-boggling run through the postseason.

This game could easily have gone either way. In sub-zero conditions at Lambeau field, New York fumbled the ball five times, recovering four of them. But Brett Favre was outplayed by Eli Manning; while the grizzled veteran threw two poor interceptions, Manning was pick-free for the third straight week. The Giants also stepped up and held RB Ryan Grant to a very quiet 29 yards on 13 carries.

This sets up a rematch of the season finale, where the Giants played hard in an otherwise meaningless game and nearly put an end to New England’s winning streak. The Pats rallied for a 38-35 victory as 13-point road favorites; they opened at the same spread for the Super Bowl in Glendale, with a total of 53½ points. The total for Week 17 at the much colder Meadowlands was 46½.

Any attempts to explain the Giants’ success by looking at the numbers have thwarted analysts thus far. New York was ranked 18th in the league in efficiency heading into the playoffs. Defying both the statheads and his less objective detractors, Manning showed evidence of becoming a management-style pivot against Green Bay. His passer rating may have been 72.3, but Manning’s smart choices kept the ball away from the Packers.

It will be even more imperative to keep the ball out of Brady’s hands. This could be the finest offense the NFL has ever produced. Even when Randy Moss is shut down, as he was by the Chargers, the Patriots have innumerable other playmakers at their disposal. Eight different players caught passes for New England against the Chargers, led by Kevin Faulk with eight receptions.

There were no major additions to the injury list for either team in the immediate aftermath of the conference championships. The buzz in Las Vegas is that this game will break the record for Super Bowl action, which was set two years ago when the Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers drew $94.5 million in wagers.

Kickoff from the University of Phoenix Stadium is Feb. 3 at 6:00 p.m. Eastern time. FOX has the broadcasting rights.

It’s a point of pride for sharp handicappers that they wear many hats: mathematician (statistics), physician (injury lists), sociologist (the betting public) and lawyer (Michael Vick) among them.

Now you can add psychologist, because the sports press is giving us a giant Cassandra complex.

San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots (-14, 46)
Sunday, Jan 20, 3:00 PM (ET) CBS
The problem lies somewhere in QB Philip Rivers’ right knee. Coach Norv Turner told the press on Monday that Rivers had a strained MCL. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune told the NFL Network on Wednesday that Rivers would “definitely” play in the AFC Championship against the New England Patriots.

But Thursday’s reports out of Boston suggest otherwise. Butch Stearns of television station WFXT says a source has told him Rivers actually has a partially torn ACL.

Stearns does not have the most stellar journalistic reputation, especially among listeners of Boston sports radio. But the Union-Tribune proved less than reliable last week about the status of TE Antonio Gates and his dislocated toe. We do know that Rivers and Gates sat out Thursday’s practice, while linebacker Shawne Merriman was limited due to illness. Turner now says Rivers will be a “Sunday morning decision.”

What’s a handicapper to do? Look to the betting line. The Patriots opened as 14½-point favorites at most offshore books and have only budged a half-point since; according to betting reports, the action has fallen almost equally on either side. If Rivers’ status for Sunday were truly in jeopardy, this matchup might not even be on the board.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-7, 39½)
Sunday, Jan 20, 6:30 PM (ET) FOX
Figuring out the Giants injury situation isn’t much easier. CB Aaron Ross practiced with one arm Thursday and is apparently going to try to play after suffering a dislocated shoulder against the Cowboys. CB Sam Madison (abdomen) was restricted in practice and remains questionable, while CB Kevin Dockery (hip) is a long shot to face the Green Bay Packers.

New York has already won two playoff games as road underdogs despite the hobbled secondary. First-year defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has masked many of the Giants’ deficiencies with smart zone pressure schemes. That’s going to be a tougher trick to pull off against QB Brett Favre and Green Bay’s version of the West Coast offense.

The Packers have allowed just 19 sacks this year for a league-best adjusted sack rate of 3.1 percent. That extra protection gives Favre the opportunity to stretch New York to the breaking point with his arsenal of receiving options. The emergence of RB Ryan Grant (5.1 yards per carry) makes Sunday’s matchup even more treacherous for the Giants defense.

The Packers do have issues of their own to work out on defense. This is a unit that has slipped to No. 15 in the league in terms of efficiency. The still-capable front seven took a hit with DT Johnny Jolly knocked out of commission in Week 11 and DT Colin Cole joining him on the shelf in Week 13. The over is on an 8-0 run for the Packers as they struggle more than usual to contain opposing tailbacks. With temperatures approaching zero degrees Fahrenheit on the forecast, tailbacks Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw should be busy Sunday night. The total has plunged from 44 points at the open to an even 39½ at most offshore shops at press.

There goes the Year of the Quarterback. In one fell swoop, two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL were given the chop Sunday. Peyton Manning’s offseason is starting much earlier than expected; baby brother Eli gets to play on at the expense of Tony Romo. And the home team is now 1-7 against the spread during the last two Divisional rounds.

Sunday was the day of reckoning for the defending Super Bowl champions. The Indianapolis Colts (-10.5) made uncharacteristic, unforced errors on offense in their 28-24 Divisional round loss to the San Diego Chargers. Two Peyton Manning passes were tipped for interceptions; other passes were dropped, and Marvin Harrison coughed up a turnover in what would prove to be limited action. But it was the Indianapolis defense that truly disappointed, allowing the Chargers 411 yards and four touchdowns – including the game-winner by backup QB Billy Volek.

The Dallas Cowboys (-7) found themselves in a similar slugfest against the New York Giants. The favored offense was even more dominant in this matchup, holding a 336-230 advantage in yardage over the Giants. But New York’s defense controlled the line of scrimmage in the second half, holding Dallas to a field goal and winning 21-17. The Cowboys became the first No. 1 conference seed to lose a Divisional game since this format was introduced in 1990.

Saturday’s games were less memorable, with the underdogs in both eliminated. The Seattle Seahawks had an early 14-0 lead after a pair of Ryan Grant fumbles, but the Green Bay Packers (-9) had a 42-20 win after Grant rushed for 201 yards and found the end zone three times. And the New England Patriots (–13.5) may be eating chalk, but after beating the Jacksonville Jaguars 31-20, they’re also going to the AFC Conference championship with a much easier path to the Super Bowl than anticipated.

San Diego (+14.5) at New England

The opening line on the AFC title game is even bigger than the one New England saw against the Jaguars. The Pats (17-0 SU, 10-7 ATS) are bleeding their supporters dry at 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. The Chargers (13-5 SU and ATS) have won eight in a row straight up, getting paid every time. However, San Diego has some injury concerns following the win over the Colts.

It appears both Philip Rivers and LaDainian Tomlinson will be able to play against the Patriots after being knocked out of Sunday’s Divisional game with knee injuries. Billy Volek and Michael Turner were solid in relief, Volek plunging for the winning touchdown after leading the Chargers on an eight-play, 78-yard drive against the withering Colts defense. Projecting these results for a full game against the Patriots is a stretch.

To highlight the San Diego advantage in special teams, Mike Scifres unleashed a 66-yard punt from his own end zone and pinned the Cowboys inside their own 35 with under two minutes remaining. This is one area where the Chargers also enjoy an advantage (although a much slimmer one) over New England. The pass rush, enhanced by fearsome linebacker Shawne Merriman, is the other. Otherwise, the Pats are expected to march to the Super Bowl.

N.Y. Giants at Green Bay (-7)

Every week, we wait for the other shoe to drop on the Giants. Yet they keep winning, stretching their record to 12-6 straight up and against the spread. Eli Manning had his third consecutive outstanding game at 20-of-27 for 185 yards, two touchdowns and a passer rating of 117.1.  Manning will now try to lead New York to its third playoff victory in a row as a road dog.

Green Bay flattened Seattle like a pancake to improve to 14-3 SU and 13-3-1 ATS on the season, taking the over to a 13-4 record as well. Both are league highs. Brett Favre was as magical as ever on a snowy Saturday at Lambeau Field; his offensive line was first in the NFL in pass protection during the regular season, allowing just 19 sacks for a 3.1-percent sack rate. That’s better protection than Dallas (25 sacks, 4.5 percent) and a tougher assignment for the Giants defense.

The lines for the NFL Divisional playoff round have been swinging to and fro. With only four games to bet on, eight popular teams and a myriad of important injury developments, the timing of your wager could be the difference between putting money in your wallet and throwing Funyuns at the TV. Here’s where things stand at press time.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-7½)
Saturday, Jan 12, 4:30 PM (ET) FOX
The Packers were favored by as many as nine points, but have been bet down to 7½ (or -340 on the moneyline), while the posted total has risen from 40½ to 43 points. The Seahawks’ pass offense looks like it matches up well against a Green Bay secondary that is the team’s weakest link and has underrated CB Will Blackmon out with a bad foot. But the Seahawks might not be as potent downfield as they’d like.

Although WR Deion Branch practiced both Wednesday and Thursday and appears ready to go, fellow wideout T.J. Hackett missed Thursday’s practice with what the Associated Press is calling a re-aggravation of his high ankle sprain. Hackett was outstanding in the Wild Card win over Washington; having both him and Branch on the field would help Seattle immensely.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-13½)
Saturday, Jan 12, 8:00 PM (ET) CBS
People are jumping all over the Patriots in this one. New England was an 11½-point chalk at the open with a total of 48½ points; make that Patriots -13½ and as high as 50 points. With the bye week and with Bill Belichick’s penchant for managing information, bettors aren’t blinking at the lack of players on the New England injury report.

The Jaguars made the curious decision to allow defensive coordinator Mike Smith to interview with the Atlanta Falcons for their vacant head-coaching job. That interview was scheduled for Thursday. Given the relatively short amount of time the Jags have had to prepare for New England, this could be a costly distraction for both Smith and his players.

San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts (-8½)
Sunday, Jan 13, 1:00 PM (ET) CBS
There has been minimal movement on the pointspread for this matchup, but the total is all over the map, dropping from 49 points to 47 at some books and 45 at others. The focus in the press on the Colts defense (led by Defensive Player of the Year Bob Sanders) and the absence of Chargers TE Antonio Gates may have bettors expecting a low-scoring affair.

Gates remains doubtful for this matchup with a sprained toe, despite coach Norv Turner expressing his optimism about getting the team’s top receiver on the field Sunday. Fullback Lorenzo Neal, on the other hand, practiced Wednesday and might be able to play after missing a month with a broken leg. Neal’s blocking will be needed if Gates is unavailable and the Chargers want to keep the pressure off RB LaDainian Tomlinson.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7½)
Sunday, Jan 13, 4:30 PM (ET) FOX
The betting story is much the same in Sunday’s other contest; the spread is consistent, but the total has dipped from 48 points to 46½. Conventional wisdom suggests the public favors the over, but reports on the betting patterns for the Divisional Round suggest otherwise in these two instances.

Offense is naturally a concern for Dallas, where both WR Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn are under the microscope. Both practiced Thursday and are expected to play against the Giants. But New York’s offense is held together with string and glue at this point. Even TE Kevin Boss is causing brows to furrow after missing Thursday’s practice with an undisclosed illness. Dallas was ranked 28th in the league in efficiency against tight ends, and Boss has played well in relief of Jeremy Shockey. Keep a close eye on Boss’ status for Sunday.