SPORTS Betting Articles

The quarterfinals of the Australian Open are upon us, and so far the women's draw is going according to plan as Venus Williams and Maria Sharapova, who ended Justin Henin's run, are on a collision course.

They’ve reached the quarterfinals at the Australian Open, and we’ve already seen some remarkable tennis. Andy Roddick was ousted in the third round by No. 29 Philipp Kohlschreiber. In the same round, Roger Federer was taken to the limit by No. 49 Janko Tipsarevic before winning the fifth and final set 10-8. At 63 games, this was the longest match of Federer’s brilliant career.

The women’s draw has gone mostly according to plan, but the story so far has been the play of No. 29 Agnieszka Radwanska. She upset both No. 2 Svetlana Kuznetsova and No. 14 Nadia Petrova to become the first Polish woman to reach the quarterfinals at the Aussie Open. Perhaps these shouldn’t be considered upsets anymore; the rising star also has career victories over Maria Sharapova and Venus Williams.

Now the real tennis begins. Tuesday’s lineup started very early in the morning with Sharapova ending Justine Henin’s 32-match winning streak with a 6-4, 6-0 victory. Later in the evening (Eastern time, that is), Radwanska and No. 9 Daniela Hantuchova are each priced at -120 for what promises to be a close battle. But the highlight match of the night features Venus as a -200 favorite versus Ana Ivanovic.

Ivanovic (+150) is the hotter player of the two heading into this matchup. She’s No. 3 on the WTA rankings after victories in 2007 at Luxembourg, Los Angeles and Berlin; Ivanovic also made it to the finals of the French Open, where she lost to Henin in straight sets. Securing that major title is proving to be difficult for the 20-year-old Serb. Williams is a big reason why. She eliminated Ivanovic at both the U.S. Open and Wimbledon.

Williams is 4-0 lifetime against her younger opponent without dropping a single set, therefore her status as the favorite Tuesday night despite her lower No. 8 ranking on the WTA Tour.

“Exactly the time for some revenge,” Ivanovic told reporters Monday. “I think I’m a little bit different player than I was last time I played her.”

Speed and power are imperative on the hard courts of Melbourne Park. Williams should still have the advantage in the latter category with her formidable serve and her two-handed backhand. Ivanovic has a little less power and a much less reliable first serve; she’s fared better on clay courts as a result. But Ivanovic has also worked on her conditioning and appears to have improved her coverage on the faster surface. That work should provide Ivanovic added opportunities to unleash her forehand on passing shots, especially as the 27-year-old Williams becomes more aggressive and attacks the net to avoid energy-sapping baseline rallies.

On the men’s draw for Tuesday night, Federer is a massive -2500 chalk against James Blake (+900). These two players have met seven times, with Federer winning every single match and dropping just one set to his American counterpart, at the 2006 U.S. Open.

A somewhat more competitive contest sees No. 3 Novak Djokovic (-300) battle No. 5 David Ferrer (+230). Djokovic is the latest player to quietly assume the third seed on the ATP Tour behind Federer and Rafael Nadal. In a breakthrough 2007 campaign, the Belgrade native beat Ferrer to reach the U.S. Open finals. Djokovic also made semifinal appearances at the French Open and at Wimbledon. However, he lost to Ferrer at the Tennis Masters Cup in China to run his career record against the Spaniard to 2-3. That match took place on the hardcourt, as well.

All four of these matches are scheduled to take place at Rod Laver Arena, starting with Hantuchova-Radwanska at 8:00 p.m. Eastern (11:00 a.m. Wednesday in Melbourne).

Following triumphs in Iowa, Illinois Senator Barack Obama and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee look to make it 2-for-2 in New Hampshire.  Odds are Obama takes the Granite State on the Democrat side ahead of New York Senator Hillary Clinton. But Huckabee faces a fight from Arizona Senator John McCain, with Texas Congressman Ron Paul trailing badly in the GOP race.

With the Iowa caucus now behind us, Illinois senator Barack Obama and Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee are celebrating wins while several candidates on both sides are licking their wounds.  But what did we really learn? And more importantly to those wagering the primaries and with futures bets for the upcoming election approximately 42 weeks from now, what did we learn that can put money in our pockets.

The simple answer going into the New Hampshire primaries is, “Not much.”   As much media attention as Iowa drew this year, if past results in Iowa mean anything then it was simply as telling as an NFL preseason game in August.  Certainly Obama and Huckabee have some extra momentum heading into the Granite State, but just as in sports, momentum can be a fickle lady.

Looking back at the history of the Iowa caucus, at least going back about 36 years to the first ‘big one’ in 1972, what happens in the Hawkeye State often stays in the Hawkeye State.  Edmund Muskie and ‘uncommitted’ each picked up 36% of the nod from Iowans in 1972, but George McGovern eventually landed the nomination for the Democrats.

In 1976, Jimmy Carter finished a very distant second to that uncommitted dude once again!  Maybe the Democrats should just list Uncommitted on the November ballot.

Four presidential caucuses ago in 1992, then-Iowa Senator Tom Harkin ran unopposed on the Dem side and eventual President-elect Bill Clinton made up ground afterwards.

The 1980 GOP caucus saw George H.W. Bush pick up the victory over Ronald Reagan.  In the end, the elder Bush ran as the VP half of Reagan’s presidential ticket.

And just four years ago, heading into Iowa it seemed to be Dick Gephardt’s and Howard Dean’s election to lose.  And lose they did as John Kerry proved he was the best the Democrats had to offer against Bush the younger, with Kerry pulling off what were then big upsets in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

For bettors, it’s perhaps easiest to explain Iowa this way.  On the Democrat side, Iowa is 5-5 ATS picking the eventual party nominee in the 10 contests from 1972-2008.  That includes picking incumbents Carter (in 1980) and Clinton (in 1996).  Not counting those easy repeat picks, Iowa is 3-5.

Over on the Republican side, it’s pretty much the same.  Iowa gave their blessing to incumbents Gerald Ford (1976), Reagan (1984), G.H.W. Bush (1992) and G.W. Bush (2004). In the events without an incumbent GOP president to choose from since 1976, Iowa has yet to pick the eventual GOP nominee.

One interesting note about the Iowa results is it might be a good thing to finish third in the state.  Bush the elder finished third in Iowa in 1988 and won his party’s nomination.  That has happened three times on the Democrat’s ledger with Clinton (1992), Michael Dukakis (1988) and George McGovern (1972) ranking third when the dust settled.  One can only guess that GOP hopeful Fred Thompson and Democrat Hillary Clinton are rooting for that trend to ring true in 2008.

Here are the final numbers from last Thursday’s Iowa caucus:

• DEM: Barack Obama (38%), John Edwards (30%), Hillary Clinton (29%), Bill Richardson (2%), Joe Biden (1%), Chris Dodd 0%, Mike Gravel 0%, and Dennis Kucinich 0%
• REP: Mike Huckabee (34%), Mitt Romney (25%), Fred Thompson (13%), John McCain (13%), Ron Paul (10%), Rudy Giuliani (4%), and Duncan Hunter (1%)

As far as the betting angle in this year’s New Hampshire primaries on Tuesday, Obama and McCain are the clear-cut favorites.  Obama is the -450 choice for the donkeys with McCain leading the elephants.  I just don’t see any other way to bet it at this time.

Maybe someone could make a case for Hillary (+250) to snare the upset, but I don’t think so.  Last time I was up in little towns like Freedom, North Woodstock and Loon Cove, Slick Willie was the president and the people I met in New Hampshire didn’t seem to think too much of him or his wife.  In 1992, Bill Clinton finished second to Paul Tsongas.

This would also seem like a great time to get down on one of the GOP candidates to go all the way.  A lot of folks are sold on this being the Dems’ race to lose, and I’m more in the camp of those that think they will indeed lose it.  Huckabee (+600) just might have the staying power in the GOP race and is getting a nice price to win the White House.  McCain (+550) is the weakest of the current ‘Big 3’ on the GOP side in my opinion, with Giuliani (+700) someone who can get the broadest support nationally of the three if he can just earn the nomination.

NEW HAMPSHIRE ODDS (all odds posted reflect numbers at Bookmaker)

2008 NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY - DEMOCRAT WINNER
BARACK OBAMA -450
HILLARY CLINTON +250
JOHN EDWARDS +2250
BILL RICHARDSON +2750
THE FIELD +3750

2008 NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY - REPUBLICAN WINNER
JOHN MCCAIN -335
MITT ROMNEY +225
MIKE HUCKABEE +300
RUDOLPH GIULIANI +625
RON PAUL +1400
THE FIELD +3500

OVERALL 2008 ODDS

2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE
BARACK OBAMA -130
HILLARY CLINTON +100
JOHN EDWARDS +1500
AL GORE +2200
BILL RICHARDSON +5000
THE FIELD +3300

2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE
JOHN MCCAIN +160
MIKE HUCKABEE +235
RUDOLPH GIULIANI +260
MITT ROMNEY +400
RON PAUL +2000
FRED THOMPSON +2500
THE FIELD +2500

2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – WINNER
BARACK OBAMA +135
HILLARY CLINTON +155
JOHN MCCAIN +550
MIKE HUCKABEE +600
RUDOLPH GIULIANI +700
MITT ROMNEY +1100
RON PAUL +2200
JOHN EDWARDS +2500
AL GORE +3300
FRED THOMPSON +4000
BILL RICHARDSON +5000
THE FIELD +3300

 

One of the most hallowed and revered events in all of sports gets underway this week when golfers from around the world tee it up at the famous Carnoustie links course.  At stake is the Claret Jug and the British Open title, and as always drama will prevail in the tournament.  Just ask Jean Van de Velde what happened the last time it was played here.

The British sure appreciate their dark comedy.

The Open Championship, more commonly referred to on these shores as the British Open, is anguishing enough for golfers from year to year. But this year is special. The Open returns this week to Carnoustie Golf Links on the east coast of Scotland, the site of Jean Van de Velde’s famous 1999 meltdown. This is a true links course, the kind that baffles many American golfers used to gentler conditions -- and, as Van de Velde can attest, its share of Europeans.

There is at least one American who appreciates the complex and often frustrating beauty that is Carnoustie. Tiger Woods looks at the venerable course as his canvas, one where he is free to be creative rather than clinical in his shot-making. Mind you, he didn’t feel that way in 1999 when he finished in seventh place, complaining afterward (but to his credit, not before or during) about not being able to bring out his driver often enough.

Woods has famously adjusted his game since then to make better use of long irons; he’s coming off two straight Open championships and is the clear favorite at 3-1 to make it three in a row.

Woods is also pleased to see that Carnoustie’s layout for 2007 is somewhat less treacherous than eight years ago. The rough is less pronounced, the greens are less protected, and the ground is fairly soft for a major.  According to Canadian golfer Mike Weir (90-1 this week), the greens are registering a 10 on the stimpmeter.

"You have to be careful, and you have to think, but you do have options," Weir wrote on his blog. "That to me is the essence of links golf."

Because of the unfamiliar links, the British Open warmup events are even more crucial for golfers like Weir who don’t spend much time on the European Tour. The key tournament last week was the Scottish Open at Loch Lomond, where Grégory Havret beat Phil Mickelson in a playoff. Ernie Els and Luke Donald were also in the hunt.

Havret’s win earned him a place on the Open futures market at 150-1; Els is the second favorite behind Woods at 12-1, with Mickelson 15-1 and Donald not far behind at 28-1.

Els has a leg up on Mickelson for two reasons. One, Lefty had a bit of a meltdown himself at Loch Lomond, bogeying the final hole of the fourth round to fall into a playoff with Havret. Two, Els is a true European Tour veteran, winning the Claret Jug in 2002. The South African is very fond of the links; in his 15 career Open appearances, Els has finished second on three occasions and in the Top 10 a total of nine times.

Els is one of several top golfers who chose to stay and golf at St. Andrews this week in preparation for the Open. Jim Furyk was among them. Currently No. 7 on the PGA Tour money list, Furyk (18-1) is on a roll, finishing in the Top 5 in four of his last five events, including second at the U.S. Open. He seems to thrive on tough courses, but his lighter drives (277.1 yards on average) are ill suited to the links in anything but the sunniest conditions.

Furyk failed to make the cut at five straight British Opens before placing fourth in 2006.  Eight years ago at Carnoustie, he was tied for 10th. Els, by comparison, cranks out drives of 295.5 yards on average. Furyk also gave the Scottish Open a miss, taking a couple weeks off after finishing third at the AT&T National in Maryland.

Among the other familiar European Tour names playing the Open this week: Padraig Harrington (25-1), Retief Goosen (33-1), Colin Montgomerie (40-1) and U.S. Open winner Angel Cabrera (40-1).

As for the last man to win at Carnoustie, Scotland’s own Paul Lawrie, he’s dead last on the odds list at 200-1. That’s British humor for you.

After making a winning debut at Hollywood Park in late May, Crossing The Line was one of several top ponies to run this Fourth of July when he closed strong for another win on the firm turf course.

A lot of top horses ran on the July 4th holiday, but none were more impressive than Crossing The Line (NZ) (Cape Cross [Ire]). Winner of his last two starts in New Zealand, he made his American debut on May 31 at Hollywood Park in a six-furlong turf sprint for John Sadler.

Far back early, he flew home with a 0:22 second last quarter to win going away by 2½ lengths in the amazing time of 1:07.98. Ridden to perfection by red-hot apprentice Joe Talamo, Crossing the Line showed acceleration that is rarely seen at any distance.

On Wednesday, Sadler entered Crossing the Line in a non-winners of three allowance/optional $100,000 claimer going a mile on the firm Hollywood turf course. In the short run going into the first turn, Crossing the Line was bumped around and shuffled back to fifth. Talamo had him on a long rein while running fifth of six running down the backstretch behind a slow pace of 0:47.62 for the half. When Victor Espinoza began to move from the back of the pack on Terroplane (Fr) (Verglas [Ire]), Talamo resisted the urge to send his mount and instead let Terroplane go by.

Now sixth and last heading toward the top of the stretch, Talamo steered Crossing the Line to the outside and began to pick up horses with alarming ease. Despite running on the wrong lead the length of Hollywood's long stretch, Crossing the Line galloped home with energy to spare, winning by an easy three-quarters of a length in 1:33.84. Once again, the son of Cape Cross (who also sired the great Ouija Board [GB]) ran his last quarter in a shade more than 22 seconds flat.

He's out of allowance conditions, so it looks like Crossing the Line will make his stakes debut at Del Mar. The Eddie Read H. (G1) would be a nice spot for him.

Later on the Hollywood Park card, Salute The Sarge (Forest Wildcat) rallied up the inside to beat Leonides (Richter Scale) by the narrowest of margins in the Hollywood Park Juvenile Championship S. (G3). Both horses were coming off debut maiden scores over the Hollywood Park Cushion Track. Yet, the betting public went with Booted (A.P. Indy) as the 6-5 favorite off a second in his career debut.

BRIS Past Performances had the first two finishers as the fastest horses that had run over the Cushion Track and if you take the race-over-the-track angle seriously, you were rewarded with a generous $57.80 exacta. Salute the Sarge's final time for the six furlongs was a pokey 1:12.08, so it's unlikely this will turn out to be a key race as the juvenile season progresses.

At Belmont Park, two stakes were carded with major implications. The Tom Fool Breeders' Cup H. (G2) at seven furlongs attracted a field of six sprinters with divisional championship aspirations. Commentator (Distorted Humor) was sent off as the 1-2 favorite off a gigantic seasonal debut when he beat minor New York-bred stakes company while earning a BRIS Speed rating of 107.

Unfortunately for Commentator, his best races -- no matter what the distance -- have come when he was able to clear the field. On Wednesday, Corey Nakatani looked like he would make the lead after running the first quarter in 0:22.07 but Edgar Prado had other ideas when he sent Rondo (Grand Slam) up the rail to challenge.

The two speedballs zipped through a second quarter in an amazing 0:21.92, and John Velazquez had High Finance (Talk is Money) perfectly placed behind them on the rail. Turning for home, Commentator was battling hard on the outside but began to pay the price for his suicidal second quarter. High Finance pulled away to win by 2¾ lengths, covering the seven furlongs in 1:21.81. Awesome Twist (Awesome Again) rallied from far back to snatch second from Commentator.

It was High Finance's first stakes win and he showed no signs of regression off a career-best allowance win last out at Belmont when he earned a 109 Speed rating. Trained by Rick Violette and owned by West Point Stable, he'll probably go next in the Forego H. (G1) on September 1 at Saratoga.

A race later, the 90th running of the Dwyer was run at 1-1/16 miles on the main track. The betting public sent out Nobiz Like Shobiz (Albert the Great) as the 13-10 favorite over Any Given Saturday (Distorted Humor) at 16-10 and Sightseeing (Pulpit) at 25-10.

With a small field and the long run down Belmont's backstretch, it figured to be a game of cat and mouse among the riders. Mike Luzzi sent Believeinmenow (Tiznow) to the front. When Cornelio Velasquez took back aboard Nobiz Like Shobiz, Garrett Gomez allowed Any Given Saturday to take up the stalking role. Even though he was in second place, he controlled the race from there like he was on the lead.

When Velasquez would try to make a move, Gomez would let it out a notch knowing he could go by the longshot leader any time he wanted. Nobiz Like Shobiz swung out three wide on the far turn to make his challenge, but Any Given Saturday always maintained his advantage. The pace quickened as they ran their fourth quarter in :23.66, and there was no getting by Any Given Saturday. He opened up in the stretch and went on to a facile four-length win, covering the 1 1/16 miles in an excellent 1:40.69. Nobiz Like Shobiz held on for second easily over Sightseeing, who was keyed up early while racing with blinkers for the first time and lacked his potent stretch kick.

After the race, trainer Barclay Tagg, when questioned about why Nobiz Like Shobiz was wearing front-leg bandages, said, "You guys will probably make a big deal out of that, but I was worried about it raining and him skinning his heels if it came up muddy."

We'll take him at his word and wait until we get to see him in the paddock to see if he's wearing them again before betting him.

In the second half of the season, Todd Pletcher will be holding a strong hand again in the three-year-old division. He can point Rags to Riches (A.P. Indy) anywhere and Circular Quay (Thunder Gulch) should be back. Any Given Saturday can go to either the Haskell (G1) at Monmouth or the Jim Dandy (G2) at Saratoga with the Travers (G1) as the ultimate goal. Without the looming presence of Invasor (Arg), the three-year-olds should be less hesitant to take on older rivals in the fall.

Even though Distorted Humor had an offspring get beat at odds-on in the Tom Fool, he had Any Given Saturday win the Dwyer and Funny Cide (Distorted Humor) capture the Wadsworth Memorial S. on a wet track at Finger Lakes. In the $100,000 stakes going 1 1/8 miles, the 2003 Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness (G1) winner ran out in the middle of the track and stormed down the middle to win going away.

The crowd at Finger Lakes was said to be one of the largest ever, but because they have video lottery terminals there they do not charge admission so there are no reliable attendance figures. Still, a ton of people came out to see a Derby winner and many of his owners were in attendance mingling with the crowd.

This year's Breeders' Cup will be held at Monmouth Park for the first time and the more you watch races from the track near the Jersey shore, the more you wonder. Calling it speed-favoring doesn't do it justice and the favorite for the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) will look more like a top-fuel eliminator. Being old-school, I'm betting on Don Garlits.

Wednesday's card at Monmouth Park saw a six-furlong optional claimer go in 1:08.58, a New Jersey-bred stakes go in 1:08.33, and the Jersey Shore Breeders' Cup S. (G3) won by Idiot Proof (Benchmark) after dueling through a first half in 0:43.39 and setting a track record of 1:07.47. Can you imagine how fast Grade 1 sprinters will go?

The recent retirement of Invasor might be a sign of things to come in horse racing as revenues from standing stallions at stud increase lap the risks of running the animals.

Invasor's (Arg) (Candy Stripes) sudden retirement this week really hit hard. Here was a horse that had won 11 of 12 starts and was well on his way to another Horse of the Year title before coming out of a workout last weekend with a career-ending injury.

As much admiration as I had for him, I was always one step behind in acknowledging how good he was. He beat me in last year's Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) when he ran by Bernardini in the final yards, and he beat me in this year's Dubai World Cup (G1) when he trounced the previously undefeated Discreet Cat.

Every once in a while a horse or jockey comes along that I just can't time. When I go against them they beat me, and when I go with them they get beat. Believe it or not, Julien Leparoux and I just can't seem to get it together. If I have the lead in the stretch, the horse rallying on the outside about to go by me is usually ridden by Leparoux.

One reason for my late arrival on the Invasor bandwagon was his loss -- which turned out to be his only loss -- in last year's UAE Derby (UAE-G2). He came to Dubai undefeated in five starts in South America, but was soundly beaten by Discreet Cat. Even when he raced in America for the rest of the year, posting four wins in four Grade 1 stakes, I was never convinced of his greatness.

But the fact is, his triumphs in the Classic, this year's Donn H. (G1) when he overcame all sorts of trouble and a tour-de-force win in the Dubai World Cup put him in select company. How good was he? All I know if you were going to run against him at 10 furlongs, you better have your running shoes on. His cruising speed and late energy were fantastic and racing is going to miss him. Give lots of credit to Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashid al Maktoum for racing him this year.

Invasor's injury shows how risky our sport is and why many horses are retired early. Besides Invasor, multiple Grade 1 winner Scat Daddy (Johannesburg) was retired this week with an injury that would have essentially cost him the rest of his three-year-old campaign. We've heard it many times about why can't these horses be kept in training and how great it would be for the sport if they were. But if you think horses are retiring prematurely now, you ain't seen nothing yet.

The two biggest stallion operations in the world are Coolmore and the Maktoums. Therefore, it is no coincidence that when well-bred colts are up for sale at auction, they bid against each other. Am here's why it will probably get worse.

A horse like Scat Daddy will probably stand next year in Kentucky at Coolmore's Ashford Stud. Based on wins in the Champagne S. (G1) at two, this year's Florida Derby (G1) and a solid pedigree, he should be able to stand at stud for $30,000 live foal.

Coolmore manages stallions in an aggressive manner that enables them to breed to huge numbers of mares. They are always willing to do deals with broodmare owners so that their top stallions are often bred to more than 150 mares each season. For someone like Scat Daddy, 150 mares next year will mean about 100 live foals. Multiply the number of live foals (100) by the stud fee ($30,000) and Coolmore is looking at $3 million annually in stud fees for the first few years of Scat Daddy's stallion career.

If Scat Daddy succeeds at stud, the fee will be increased and the $3 million will grow each season.

So why doesn't Scat Daddy's owners let him recover from his injury and race next year? It's purely risk and reward. The risk is that he gets hurt on the track and can't breed. The risk is that he races next year and doesn't do well so his value as a stallion goes down. Based on a projected $30,000 stud fee, his book value is probably around $8 or $10 million. If his owners decided to race him next year, his mortality insurance alone would be more than $500,000 (usually around 6 percent of the value of the horse who is still racing).

So even if Scat Daddy were to win a $1 million race, he would only be covering his insurance premium. He would need to have a tremendous year on the racetrack to equal the $3 million he could earn in the breeding shed. And the risk is always there.

But, here's why Scat Daddy's retirement and arrival at stud next year makes even more economic sense. Coolmore and the Maktoums have pioneered the shuttling of stallions to the Southern Hemisphere in the past decade. Even some of their top stallions -- such as Bernardini, Henny Hughes, Fusaichi Pegasus and Tale of the Cat -- will stand a season in North America and then ship down to Australia, most likely in July for the Southern Hemisphere breeding season.

Thus, the revenues from standing stallions at stud can almost double in a given year. Stud fees are a bit lower, but the breeding industry is thriving in Australia and New Zealand and precocious sires are in great demand since many of their big-money stakes are for juveniles. It's entirely possible that Scat Daddy will earn close to $5 million next year in his first season at stud for Coolmore if he tests well for fertility and interest in the opposite sex. You think breeding to more than 250 mares is easy?

When you consider how many horses do not make it to the races, or those that run and do poorly, can you blame any owner for taking the reward and avoiding the risk? And for American breeders, as much as they might want to race their male horses longer, they are often forced to sell or syndicate because the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has a rule that you have to make money two years out of every seven or else you could be declared a hobby and not a viable business that is entitled to write off expenses. You don't want that.

So Invasor is gone from racing and will take up stud duties somewhere for the Maktoums. Scat Daddy will be managed by Coolmore, and both figure to earn a ton of money even before their first foals ever make it to the races. And, there will be more. There always are, and with shuttling to the Southern Hemisphere now as common as huge books of broodmares, the economics of breeding cannot be superseded.

Infineon Raceway's road course in Sonoma, California, is the site for this week's NASCAR event that is a bit out of the ordinary since it involves more than the usual turn left, turn left, turn left...

Right-hand turns. Who knew?

It's time once again for NASCAR's biannual ode to right-hand turns as the Smokeless Set heads to Sonoma, California, for a road race at Infineon Raceway. This event is a handicapper's dream, because so many of the regulars on the Nextel Cup circuit hate driving their big ol' lunky cars through courses meant for much smaller, lighter vehicles.

Guys you usually see contending each week, like Matt Kenseth and Dale Earnhardt Jr., aren't likely to be near the front on Sunday, and guys like Sterling Marlin are apt to hold a press conference complaining about the fact that NASCAR even runs here at all.

And then there are the ringers. Oh, sure, Nextel Cup regulars like Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart are the favorites to take Sunday's race, and road-course vets like Juan Pablo Montoya and Robby Gordon are threats, too. But Boris Said, Ron Fellows, P.J. Jones, A.J. Allmendinger and even Terry Labonte will ride in one-offs this weekend; they'll be "road-course ringers" (okay, Allmendinger supposedly has a full-time Cup ride, but he's only a threat at road courses) who have legit shots at running near or at the front in a Nextel Cup event. For all but two races a year, that'd be pretty much impossible.

So the field of contenders is dramatically narrowed. Let's take a look at which guys we think have the best chance of finishing up front at Sonoma on Sunday.

Last Week: Bully for us. A big week here in NASCARland, as Carl Edwards came through on a +1055 bet to win the Michigan race outright, and thus also win his head-to-head matchup against Martin Truex Jr. (who finished the race second). That made it a happy, profitable weekend: we netted a positive 2.38 units on 1.5 units wagered (a 158% return), putting us at a positive 5.44 units for the season on 22.5 units wagered (a 24.2% return).

At this week's Toyota/SaveMart 350, take Jeff Gordon (+313), 1/6th unit: It ain't sexy, but what can you do? Gordon has won at Sonoma on five occasions, including last summer. Plus, this is a Car of Tomorrow race, and we all know Hendrick Motorsports has won every COT event they've run so far this year save one. Gordon's dirt-tracking background serves him well in these road-course events; he also has four career wins at Watkins Glen, where the Smokeless Set will run later this summer.

Take Tony Stewart (+497), 1/6th unit: Again, not what you'd call an adventurous pick, but it's hard to ignore Smoke on road courses, too. He had the second-best car all day last summer (Gordon was best), and would've easily finished second except he pushed the limit late and wound up hurting his car and coming in 28th. Stewart has won twice at Infineon and three times at Watkins Glen, and he's been exceedingly good in a few COT events so far this year. He also hasn't won a race yet this year, which makes him due.

Take Juan Pablo Montoya (+627), 1/6th unit: Yes, I've just gone and done it: I've picked the three favorites at this race. I'm sorry...I'd like to be more adventurous, maybe try my luck with Ryan Newman (+1790), Kurt Busch (+1226), Boris Said (+1727) or Robby Gordon (+986). But I can't do it.

Montoya is a Formula One veteran who's been salivating for the opportunity to get these round-and-round drivers on his home turf; now that they're at a road course, you're going to see the tiger unleashed from his cage. Remember, Montoya won a Busch Series road event earlier this year, in which he bumped aside his teammate, Scott Pruett, to win.

After nipping their neighbors to the north Canada 2-1 in the semifinals, the USA will go for their second straight Gold Cup win on Sunday versus their southern neighbors from Mexico. Can coach Bob Bradley rally Landon Donovan, Kasey Keller and the rest of his troops one more time to hand Mexico their first defeat in the finals?

It wasn’t pretty, but the United States got the job done.

The U.S. national soccer team beat Canada 2-1 at Thursday’s CONCACAF Gold Cup semifinal in Chicago. The win propelled the American side into Sunday’s final against Mexico, who downed upstart Guadeloupe later that evening at Soldier Field. It’s a chance for the U.S. to win its second Gold Cup in a row -- but it almost didn’t happen. Canada had an apparent tying goal disallowed in stoppage time when the play was incorrectly whistled offsides.

The Americans didn’t escape the match unscathed. Frankie Hejduk, who scored the opening goal against Canada (his first goal for the national side since 2000), received his second yellow card in two games and will have to sit out Sunday’s final. So will 19-year-old midfielder Michael Bradley, the son of coach Bob Bradley and currently on loan to SC Heerenveen of the Dutch Premier Division. He was shown a red card the 89th minute and gets an automatic suspension for his troubles.

As for the Mexicans they have been to the Gold Cup final on four occasions, winning every time.  But El Tricolor had to be patient to find the net against Guadeloupe, a French "overseas department" whose best players are fulfilling obligations in the mother country. Mexico also settled for 1-0 victories against Costa Rica in the quarterfinals and Panama in the group stage. Factor in their 2-1 loss to Honduras (No. 55 in FIFA’s world rankings for June), and Mexico is anything but caliente going into Sunday’s final.

Odds on the championship game at Solider Field had yet to be posted at press time, but despite Mexico’s less than stellar road to the final, they were +144 favorites to win the Gold Cup heading into Thursday’s semis, edging the U.S. at +161. Plucky Guadeloupe was +212, and unheralded Canada brought up the rear at +2000. However, this was a Canadian team loaded with MLS and international talent that had rocketed 38 spots up the rankings to No. 56. The U.S., meanwhile, moved ahead of Mexico in the CONCACAF pecking order by jumping from No. 29 in May to No. 16, a full 10 spots ahead of El Tri.

These FIFA rankings were once considered a laughingstock. The Americans regularly placed inside the Top 20, reaching as high as fourth place heading into the 2006 World Cup. But even the optimistic U.S. players knew better. They’ll be much more encouraged by their current surge up the rankings, which were reformulated last July to reflect what FIFA called "the reality of world football."

Only Mexico, the U.S. and Canada have won the Gold Cup since its reincarnation as a biennial tournament in 1991. The most recent of Mexico’s four victories was in 2003; however, the U.S. won two of the last three events to bring their Cup total to three. Canada’s lone victory was in 2000.

The final takes place at 3:00 p.m. Eastern time with television coverage on Univision and the Fox Soccer Channel.

In this week's Gab Session, Brian tackles baseball's ongoing steroids 'investigation,' looks back at Angel Cabrera's stunning US Open win, and offers up tidbits on Barry Bonds and Kobe Bryant.

Does Major League Baseball think we're stupid?

Check that. Major League Baseball thinks we're stupid.

So much hullabaloo has been made over whether or not Jason Giambi will meet with the Mitchell people about his steroid use. Will he or won't he? If he meets with them, what will he say? Whom will he implicate? If he doesn't meet with them, will he be suspended? Will they remove the muscles directly from his body with a knife?

Man, this is going to turn out to be nothing, the way everything about baseball's steroid investigation is going to turn out to be nothing, the way we're made to sit in front of our TVs and watch swollen-headed monstrosities named Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa crash through records they'd never have gotten without testicle-shrinking, acne-inducing shots to their fat asses. Baseball is run by people who don't respect their fans, because anyone who respected us wouldn't do this to us and then kick us out of bed in the morning.

Here's how the Giambi thing will go down. He'll say, "Okay, I'll come talk to you." But he won't mention any names of any other players who did 'roids. He'll be conveniently fuzzy on when he took 'roids himself, so no one will be able to say he did 'em while he was a Yankee, so the Yanks won't be able to void his mammoth contract.

He'll essentially cop to having done what we know most of the major sluggers of the late 1990s did, but without any ramifications. No one else will be implicated. Bud Selig will be able to wave coquettishly toward Congress and say, "See, we're soooo serious about getting to the bottom of this. Now about not revoking that anti-trust exemption..."

Yawn. I'd rather watch Lost reruns. At least you know Kate ain't juiced.

Question: What were Angel Cabrera's odds to win the U.S. Open before the week started? Was it fortunate for the books that Tiger didn't finish off his comeback?

Gabrielle: Angel Cabrera was a 140/1 long shot to win the U.S. Open. We have now had two majors in a row where the winner was listed as more than a 120/1 long shot. Actually, we didn't even list Cabrera in our original odds. He was grouped in the field at 5/1. The book was ecstatic with the long shot win; Jim Furyk at 20/1 would have caused some groans from our bookmakers, as he was the popular choice among bettors this weekend. Furyk trailed only Tiger Woods in terms of handle.

Question: Are there any prop bets out there about Barry Bonds's quest for Hank Aaron's career home-run record?

Gabrielle: We have had props on Barry Bonds all season long. Each time Barry hits a HR, we'll see a spike in the bets that come in. I get the feeling that the public has now accepted the fact he's going to break the record. So his fans want to see him become the home run champ, and his non-fans are saying, "Okay, let's get this over with." Of course, we're offering "When will Bonds hit the home run," where most of the money at this point is on August 6 or later. We're also offering:

• What inning will Barry hit the record-breaking HR?
• What will the pitch count be?
• Will the pitcher be right- or left-handed?
• How many men will be on base?
• How long will it take Barry to round the bases?
• Will Bud Selig be in attendance?

If you take the "favorite" on each of the above props, number 756 will happen like this: "In the seventh inning Bonds will step into the batter's box to face a right-handed pitcher, and with no one on base and Bud Selig looking on, he'll launch an 0-2 pitch deep to right field for the record."

Question: Do you think Kobe Bryant really wants out of L.A.? And do you expect that he'll actually be on a team other than the Lakers when next winter comes?

Gabrielle: Kobe wants to win; he sees that the Lakers are a few years from contending, so his best option is to win elsewhere. The Lakers don't have the assets to bring in enough talent to help Kobe return the Lakers to their past glory. I think he'll be gone before the first game of the season, but it's going to take some creative dealing to make it happen. Most teams that have enough assets to give the Lakers enough to get Kobe may not have enough left over to help Kobe win another title.

The obvious team that could give the Lakers the talent they need to facilitate a trade with out decimating their roster is the Phoenix Suns. The Lakers could get Shawn "The Matrix" Marion, who has let it be known he's unhappy in his role on the Suns. Add Leandro Barbosa and Boris Diaw, and this trade could definitely happen. However, after the trade, I doubt the Lakers would want to see Kobe more than twice a year or in the playoffs, s o they may prefer to find a trading partner in the East.

Question: With basketball and hockey done, what will be the bettors' focus over this long, hot summer before the NFL begins? And what will be the books' focus?

Gabrielle: Baseball is going to take the majority of the action over the summer, but savvy bettors will look to some of the fringe leagues to make some money. Due to their limited popularity, the WNBA and Arena Football will have some attractive numbers available to those bettors who are willing to take the time to handicap those sports effectively.

Favroites aren't faring as well as they once did on UFC cards with Chuck Liddell the latest big name to drop.  Is Rich Franklin next when he faces Yushin Okami in UFC 72?

What if Apollo Creed had won the second fight, too?

That’s what it feels like right now in the world of mixed martial arts. Chuck Liddell, the most popular figure in MMA today, was expected to get his revenge on Quinton 'Rampage' Jackson two weeks ago at UFC 71. Instead, Jackson was every bit as dominant as he was four years ago when these two fighters met in Japan. It only took 1:53 for Jackson (+160) to score the technical knockout after putting Liddell down with a right to the jaw.

Now upset is the buzzword in MMA circles. Chalk used to be the king of the octagon, with the best fighters monopolizing both the victories and the purses. This still happens, especially when it comes to the payouts, but lesser-regarded fighters are picking up more and more wins as the level of competition in the sport continues to rise.

This is not a good sign for Rich 'Ace' Franklin. The former UFC middleweight champion is still feeling the sting of losing his belt last October to Anderson Silva as an even-money favorite. Franklin got his groove back in March with a victory over Jason McDonald, a fighter who simply isn’t at Franklin’s level. Now Franklin has June 16 circled on his calendar; that’s when he faces Japan’s Yushin Okami at the main event of UFC 72 in Belfast.

Okami isn’t exactly what the UFC had in mind. Franklin’s opponent was originally scheduled to be Martin Kampmann, but plans changed when Kampmann withdrew due to a knee injury. Franklin emphasized on his website that he will "continue preparing a fight...not a person."

But he’ll be preparing for a better fight than he anticipated. Kampmann’s 20-2 record in MMA was built almost entirely in minor federations; Okami (20-3) is a Top-10 fighter with a respected background in Japan.

Franklin carries -200 odds into this bout; Liddell had the same price when he fell to Jackson at UFC 71. It isn’t easy staying on top of the mountain these days.  As Dave Doyle pointed out for FOX, there is a horde of challengers lining up at the door, and they are doing whatever they can to get in, including watching every minute of every match on video.

Doyle also says that some of the elite fighters who have lost of late were simply being lazy. Franklin does not fall into that category. One of the reasons Franklin is considered one of the best in the game is his outstanding work ethic, on full display both mentally and physically. The Cincinnati alum has a master’s degree in education and a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Liddell may have been distracted versus Jackson by his media commitments; some may fear Franklin will likewise be looking ahead to a potential rematch with Silva. He is unlikely, though, to lose focus on the task at hand.

Not that it does Franklin any good to have his task change the month before the fight. His new opponent has already beaten Silva (albeit via DQ) and would love just as much as Franklin to bag a big-money rematch. Okami will also have a short time to prepare for June 16, but he should have no ring rust to speak of after fighting five times in the past 12 months, the last four of those in UFC. And he’ll have a little added motivation after rumors that Franklin’s camp wanted Okami to replace Kampmann, thereby avoiding No. 3-ranked middleweight Paulo Filho.

The other matches on the main card for UFC 72 are Forrest Griffin vs. Hector Ramirez, Tyson Griffin vs. Clay Guida, and the aforementioned Jason MacDonald vs. Rory Singer. The host venue in Belfast will be The Odyssey, the largest indoor stadium in all of Ireland.

The second major takes place this week at the Oakmont Country Club in Pennsylvania when players tee it up for the US Open.  Will it boil down to Tiger versus Phil in the end?

Oakmont could be the new Shinnecock this week. Maybe not in terms of the poor maintenance of greens back in 2004, but Oakmont’s greens are almost as slippery even when watered better than Shinnecock’s and the biggest penalty is the graduated rough that surrounds thin fairways. Bunkers are no fun either.

Talk this week has been that the course is going to play well above par. They’ve removed more than 5,000 trees in the last five years, to try to return it to its linksy original design near the Allegheny River.What are the odds Phil Mickelson will hit one of the few that are left?

I’m tempted to break my Mickelson position of not wagering for or against him. A golf history buff, he knows the best thing he could do to elevate his career from Hall of Fame status to one of the best ever would be to win a bunch more majors, starting with this one after last year’s debacle.

I don’t know how much I believe in the wrist injury or the problems it might give him this week and I could see Mickelson play this major like A-Rod played April for the Yankees. Bottom line, though, you just don’t know with those guys. I’m staying away.

I always pick Tiger in the majors because he’s Tiger. A grueling mental test sets up perfectly for him. I could see him playing this like he did the British Open last year: lay off the temptation of the short par-4s and play it safe and back with his irons. Stay out of the hay at all costs. Oakmont’s still no walk in the park with a conservative approach because the greens aren’t going to hold much. It’s not like I’ll be kicking myself if he does win at only 11-4 odds.

On the stats front, a good look at driving accuracy and putting can help this week, but the fact is that when players in practice rounds are talking about the possibility of rounds in the 90s, it’s anyone’s guess.

Last week: No go in the outright but Scott Verplank came through in the head-to-head at 11-10, 1 unit for 1.1 units.

At the US Open this week, take David Toms (50-1), 1/6 unit: Quietly having a good year with five top-10s and eight top-25s. He’s coming off a third place finish last week in Memphis, which was a tough test in itself. He ranks 37th in driving accuracy, pretty good, and he’s been rolling the ball well with that sweet putting stroke. He withdrew from the U.S. Open last year but since 2000 he’s gone T16, T66, T45, T5, T20 (in 2004,at nasty Shinnecock) and T15.

Take Jim Furyk (16-1), 1/6 unit: Four top-10s and eight top-25s this year, he’s plodding along. Plodding along being a good approach this week. Always among the top players in driving accuracy, finding greens and a grinding putter, it’s no surprise his only major win was the U.S. Open in 2003. Since then, he’s gone T48, T28 and T2 last year because of a costly 18th at Winged Foot. Furyk has his own cross to bear and may be flying a little under the radar this week.

Take Retief Goosen (25-1), 1/6 unit: Not the first time I’ve picked the Goose to win this tournament (I was right in 2004 when he outlasted Shinnecock with brilliant play around and on those treacherous greens). I think there’s a distinction between mentally tough and unfazed. He’s probably as much the latter as the former. Goosen finished T2 at the Masters this year. Driving accuracy is a problem and he hasn’t been putting all that well. Since 2001 he’s won the U.S. Open twice and missed the cut twice, one of those MCs last year.