Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds, Picks & Prop Bets for Monday, April 28
Some MLB fans are asking if Shohei Ohtani will ever hit another home run, as baseball's first-ever 50-50 man has been kept inside the ballpark in every game since April 16. However, our best home run predictions today believe the power drought ends on Monday against the Miami Marlins.
Ohtani may headline our four home run prop picks, but that doesn't mean the other three aren't just as good - they might be even better. We've included the reigning NL MVP and two of our other bets to form a very tasty three-leg parlay, too, which comes in at odds of +11600.
Let's start the week off right, shall we?
💰 Best MLB home run predictions & odds today: April 28
Here are my best MLB home run predictions and odds today with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. You can also check out our MLB player prop odds tool for the latest MLB odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.
🧨 Shohei Ohtani player prop pick: To hit a home run (+300 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Ben Rice player prop pick: To hit a home run (+550 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Shea Langeliers player prop pick: To hit a home run (+420 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Kerry Carpenter player prop pick: To hit a home run (+360 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
💣 Home run predictions today: MLB expert picks & prop bets
Here's a breakdown of my best home run prop predictions and expert picks today. Check out the rest of our MLB picks along with our guide on how to bet on MLB.
⚾ Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +300 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $30)
Ohtani may not be crushing home runs at the same pace he did last year when he launched 54, but it's not as though he's making significantly worse contact through these first 26 games.
The megastar still ranks in the top 10 in average exit velocity at 95 mph, which is just 0.8 below his 2024 mark and better than any other season before that. Additionally, he's making hard contact at the highest rate of his career.
Ohtani looked locked in during the final two games against the Pittsburgh Pirates after his entire Dodgers team got schooled by Cy Young odds favorite Paul Skenes in Game 1. He managed an average exit velocity of 102 mph in the second contest, ripping two doubles and a triple, and he had two more hits in the final game, with an average exit velocity of 105.2 mph.
The home runs are coming, and it starts tonight. Marlins pitcher Edward Cabrera is allowing 1.84 long balls per nine innings. Look for Ohtani to finally flex that highly anticipated dad strength against Cabrera.
📊 Marlins vs. Dodgers home run odds
⚾ Ben Rice (Yankees) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +550 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $55)
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What if I told you that just two spots below Ohtani on the league's average exit velocity leaderboard is Yankees youngster Rice?
Lost in all the talk of how ridiculous Aaron Judge has been at the plate is the fact that Rice is absolutely tearing the cover off the ball. He ranks in the 95th percentile or better in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard hit percentage, and if he slightly improved his launch angle from 8.5 to around even 12, he would probably have a few more bombs than the six he already has.
Meanwhile, Orioles starting pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano is about to be living on Regression Island. Somehow, despite allowing 1.93 home runs per nine innings and striking out no one (2.89 per nine innings), he has an ERA of just 3.54. His 6.11 xERA is more representative of how bad he is, and Rice and the Yankees are going to tee off on him tonight.
📊 Yankees vs. Orioles home run odds
⚾ Shea Langeliers (Athletics) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +420 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $42)
Langeliers has quickly established himself as one of the power hitting catchers in baseball, as he's hit the second-most homers at the position since 2023.
Langeliers has actually been significantly better at the plate this season, too, even if his surface-level stats don't suggest that. He's cut his strikeout rate nearly in half, and he's making better, more consistent contact. His average exit velocity is slightly down, but his hard-hit rate is up from last year.
The Athletics get the pleasure of facing Patrick Corbin tonight, who's long been one of the very worst pitchers in baseball. Corbin has been giving up homers for fun for roughly five years now, and moving from the Washington Nationals to the Texas Rangers hasn't changed that.
There are a number of Athletics sluggers with good home run projections tonight, but Langeliers is my favorite bet of the bunch.
📊 Athletics vs. Rangers home run odds
⚾ Kerry Carpenter (Tigers) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +360 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $42)
Carpenter was low-key a beast last year. He managed 18 home runs in just 296 plate appearances, due to an injury. If he had managed to play the full season and log 700 plate appearances, he would have hit 42 home runs at the pace he managed across those 87 contests.
Carpenter has picked up where he left off so far, too, as he has five long balls in 90 PAs this year.
He and the Tigers get Astros right-hander Ronel Blanco tonight, who actually hasn't been that bad so far this year. He suppresses home runs at a solid rate overall, but we see why this bet looks so good when we dive into the splits.
Blanco is getting crushed by lefties so far this year, and has a hard time putting them away via the strikeout. Meanwhile, much like many left-handed hitters, Carpenter is significantly better against righties. This is a matchup made in heaven for the Tigers slugger.
Tigers vs. Astros home run odds
💰Best MLB home run parlay picks
Here is our best MLB home run parlay for Monday's baseball action; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any parlay.
💣 Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run (+300)
💣 Ben Rice to hit a home run (+550)
💣 Kerry Carpenter to hit a home run (350)
🚀 Best parlay odds: +11600 via bet365 ($10 to win $1,160)
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