Canada Election Odds: Carney's Liberals Cemented as Favorites on Election Day
It's election day in Canada, and Mark Carney's Liberals are the -500 betting favorites over Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives (+290) in the Canadian federal election odds.
The Conservatives were once massive favorites to replace Justin Trudeau and the Liberals before Donald Trump was re-elected in the United States, and Trudeau stepped down as leader of the Liberals. Canadians have been casting mail-in votes and turning up at advance voting in record numbers, and that has helped the Liberals grow a commanding lead by the latest betting odds on election day.
We have a look below at some of the offerings for the Canadian federal election from the best sportsbooks in Canada.
📊 45th Canadian federal election betting odds
This market is set for the "Sworn in Government." Odds via FanDuel Ontario as of April 28.
| Party | Odds | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal Party (LPC) | -500 | 83.33% | $2 |
| Conservatives (CPC) | +290 | 25.64% | $29 |
| Any other party | +7500 | 1.32% | $750 |
🆕 Latest Canadian federal election odds & news
- April 28: The Liberals' odds lengthened slightly over the weekend - from -670 to -500 - but the odds for the Conservatives held steady
- April 25: The Liberals continue to pull away as favorites, now trading at -670 while the Conservatives have slipped to +290
- April 22: The Liberals surged forward yet again after some mild movement back toward the Conservatives, jumping from -310 to -440, while the Conservatives lengthened from +220 to +270
- April 21: A record 7.3 million Canadians voted during advanced polling held over the Easter long weekend
- March 22: The Liberals became -150 betting favorites with the Conservatives going to +110 with reports of an election being called for April 28
- March 10: Conservatives slip to -225, Liberals shorten to +162
- March 9: Liberals elect Mark Carney as the new leader, replacing Justin Trudeau
🇨🇦 Which party is the 45th Canadian federal election betting odds favorite?
This main Canadian federal election betting market asks for the sworn-in government following today's election.
🔴 Liberal Party (LPC): -500
It was once unimaginable to think the Liberals would be the favorites to win the Canadian election, but now they seem poised for a majority government.
The Conservatives held an enormous lead in the odds earlier in the winter. However, following the re-election of Donald Trump in the United States, which has led to a budding trade war and rhetoric of annexing Canada, the situation has changed. The Liberals started to experience positive momentum when Trudeau announced his intention to step down, and they have been soaring since Carney took over.
While it once seemed like Canadians were clamoring for change, it seems the leadership change may have been enough to avoid a party change. A recent poll from Ipsos shows that 41% of respondents would support the Liberals. However, they lost slight ground since the debate, with the Conservatives and Poilievre rising two percentage points to 38% in the same poll. Regardless, the Liberals have continued to see their odds lengthen.
Best odds: -500 via FanDuel Ontario | Implied win probability: 83.33%
🔵 Conservatives (CPC): +290
The Conservative Party of Canada has been significantly overtaken as the front-runner to form the next government at Canada election betting sites. The CPC once held a massive lead and has gone from -600 (85.71% implied win probability) to +290 (25.64% implied win probability) over the last four months.
While the CPC hasn't won a federal election since the Trudeau-led Liberals took over in 2015, it formed two minority governments (2006 and 2008) and a majority government (2011) in the not-too-distant past.
Best odds: +290 via FanDuel Ontario | Implied win probability: 25.64%
🗳️ Next government
Sports Interaction is offering a market on what the next formed government will be. Odds via Sports Interaction as of April 25.
| Government Type | Odds (SIA) | Implied Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal Party majority | -125 | 55.56% | $8 |
| Liberal Party minority | +300 | 25% | $30 |
| Conservatives minority | +400 | 20% | $40 |
| Conservatives majority | +600 | 14.29% | $60 |
Terms and conditions apply.
🍁 Kalshi prediction markets
Use Kalshi promo code 'SBR' to join Kalshi today and receive a $10 sign-up bonus. Kalshi is a legal and regulated prediction market in most U.S. states and Washington, D.C.
Kalshi lists the Liberal Party (Mark Carney) at 80% and the Conservative Party (Pierre Poilievre) at 21%. The other four parties, which will be on the ticket, are the Bloc Québécois (Yves-François Blanchet), New Democratic Party (Jagmeet Singh), Green Party (Elizabeth May), and People's Party (Maxime Bernier), all of which are trading at less than 1%.
You can also trade on which type of government will be formed. Leading the way are Liberal majority (64%) and Liberal minority (18%), followed by Conservative minority (13%) and Conservative majority (6%). Other markets include Liberal minority with NDP support (5%) and Liberal and NDP coalition (1%).
🪑 How many seats will the Liberal Party win?
The Liberals are the new favorites to win the election, but how many seats will they win? Odds via bet365 as of April 28.
| Party | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 or below | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
| 100 to 119 | +4000 | 2.44% | $400 |
| 120 to 139 | +1800 | 5.26% | $180 |
| 140 to 159 | +700 | 12.50% | $70 |
| 160 to 179 | -120 | 54.55% | $8.33 |
| 180 to 199 | +162 | 38.17% | $16.20 |
| 200 to 210 | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| 211 or more | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
🪑 How many seats will the Conservative Party win?
The Conservatives are playing catchup in the polls, but how many seats will they win? Odds via bet365 as of April 28.
| Party | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 or below | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
| 100 to 119 | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| 120 to 139 | +110 | 47.62% | $11 |
| 140 to 159 | +100 | 50% | $10 |
| 160 to 179 | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| 180 to 199 | +2800 | 3.45% | $280 |
| 200 to 210 | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
| 211 or more | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
🪑 How many seats will the Bloc Quebecois win?
The Bloc Quebecois have slipped behind the Liberals across many regions of their home province. How many seats will they win? Odds via bet365 as of April 28.
| Party | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 9 | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
| 10 to 19 | +137 | 42.19% | $13.70 |
| 20 to 29 | -150 | 60% | $6.67 |
| 30 to 39 | +800 | 11.11% | $80 |
| 40 or above | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
🪑 How many seats will the NDP win?
The NDP once looked like a rising powerhouse, but polling shows them slipping nationwide. How many seats will they win? Odds via bet365 as of April 28.
| Party | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 4 | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| 5 to 9 | +100 | 50% | $10 |
| 10 to 14 | +100 | 50% | $10 |
| 15 or above | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
❓Canadian general federal election FAQs
Where can I bet on the Canadian federal election?
You can bet on the Canadian Federal Election at our best Ontario sports betting apps and our best Canada election betting sites. You'll find selections generally under "Politics" or "Novelty."
Who is the favorite for the next Canadian federal election?
The Liberal Party of Canada is the favorite to win the next Canadian Federal Election, with odds of -500 representing an 83.33% implied win probability.
Who won the previous Canadian federal election?
The Liberal Party were elected to a minority government in 2021 and have been in power since 2013.
When is the next Canadian federal election?
The next Canadian federal election is set for Monday, April 28.
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