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Rockets vs. Warriors Prediction Tonight: Game 4 Odds & Expert Picks

Philip Wood

Last Updated: April 28, 2025 6:06 PM EDT • 2 min 45 sec read.

Rockets vs. Warriors Prediction Tonight: Game 4 Odds & Expert Picks, April 28
Pictured: Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green (23) reacts after forcing a turnover by Houston Rockets center Alperen Sengun (28). Photo by Darren Yamashita via Imagn Images.

The Golden State Warriors will look to take a decisive 3-1 series lead over the Houston Rockets tonight in Game 4. We make our best Rockets vs. Warriors prediction, part of our NBA picks, ahead of the pivotal game in the Western Conference series.

Tipoff is set for 10 p.m. ET (TNT/truTV) tonight from Chase Center in San Francisco. Golden State is a 3.5-point betting favorite to take a commanding series lead. The Warriors' moneyline is at least -165 across our best sports betting sites, and the total is set between 202 and 203.

Read on for our Rockets vs. Warriors predictions as the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference looks to stay alive in the series tonight.

💰 Rockets vs. Warriors expert picks for Game 4

🔎 Our NEW NBA player prop odds tool can help you find the best NBA odds across legal sportsbooks in your area!

✅ Against the spread pick: Warriors -3.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Moneyline pick: Warriors (-165 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Under 203 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🏀 Game 4 prediction & best bet

🎯 Score prediction: Warriors 100, Rockets 94

Stephen Curry dropped 36 points in Game 3, as the Warriors took a 2-1 series lead. After watching that performance, the question entering Game 4 is whether the Rockets have any answer for Curry. While they have a balanced attack, with five players averaging in double figures, their leading scorer, Alperen Sengun, is averaging 19.3 points during the postseason, and no one scored more than 17 for them in Game 3.

All of these games have been close in the fourth quarter, but the Warriors have been able to win games because they have Curry, while the Rockets struggle to find a clutch finisher who can put the game away. Nothing has changed since Game 3, so I expect the Warriors to have the advantage in this one as well, as they win and just barely cover the spread.

That said, the Under is the best play of this game. The Warriors opened at 4.5-point favorites, and despite 60% of bettors backing them against the spread, the line has dropped to 3.5. This is worrisome, as it suggests that oddsmakers are happy with the public backing the Warriors. I still think the Warriors win and cover, but be wary.

All four of these games have featured totals of 203 or less. Two of the games failed to hit 200 points. At this point, it’s clear that the defensive performances of these two teams aren’t flukes. The Warriors have yet to score more than 104 points in a game in this series, and the Rockets have been held to 93 or fewer in two of the three. 

Even if one team pulls away, look for this total to stay below 200. All three games in this series have been decided by at least 10 points, yet the losing team hasn’t gotten close to 100 points. That will be the case again tonight.

✅ Best bet: Under 203 (-110 via bet365)

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📈 Rockets vs. Warriors odds

Live updated odds from our best sports betting sites.

🪧 Game 4 opening odds

Opening odds via BetMGM.

  • Spread: Rockets +4.5 (-115) | Warriors -4.5 (-105)
  • Moneyline: Rockets +150 | Warriors -185
  • Over/Under: Over 202.5 (-110) | Under 202.5 (-110)

🚑 Rockets vs. Warriors injury report

Follow the official NBA injury report for more injury news.

📡 How to watch Rockets vs. Warriors live (Game 4)

📅 Monday, April 28
🕗 10 p.m. ET]
📍 Chase Center (San Francisco) 
📺 TNT, truTV | 🛜 Max, Fubo, Sling TV, YouTube TV

💵 Best NBA betting sites

Ready to bet on the NBA playoffs? Check out the best NBA betting sites and best sportsbook promos for today's games:

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.