New Pope Betting Odds: Pietro Parolin Still Leads Favorites, Plus Our AI Prediction

Pietro Parolin is the betting favorite by the Vegas new pope odds with odds +200 representing an implied win probability of 33.33% that he'll be the 267h pontiff of the Catholic church following the death of Pope Francis last week.

Pope Francis passed away at the age of 88 following hospitalization more than a month ago due to double pneumonia. Francis served as the 266th pope for 12 years. The conclave will soon meet to elect his successor, and Parolin leads Luis Antonio Tagle (+225) and Peter Turkson (+450) as the betting favorites.

The conclave is expected to be held about 15-20 days following Francis' death, when the Roman Catholic cardinals from around the globe will determine the next pope-elect. The process as a whole could last more than a month as up to 135 cardinals have their vote on the new pope.

👉 See our new pope predictions and how to bet on the next pope here.

🔢 Odds to be the new pope

Here are the odds for who will be named the next pope. Odds as of Monday, April 28.

If you're in the U.S., you can make predictions on the next pope via Kalshi's next pope market.

• Pietro Parolin (+200)
• Luis Antonio Tagle (+225)
• Peter Turkson (+450)
• Robert Sarah (+600)
• Matteo Zuppi (+600)
• Peter Erdo (+800)
• Pierbattista Pizzaballa (+900)
• Jean-Marc Aveline (+1800)
• Raymond Leo Burke (+1800)
• Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (+1800)
• Mykola Bychok (+2000)
• Reinhard Marx (+2000)
• Mario Grech (+2000)
• Fernando Chomai Garib (+2000)
• Kevin Farrell (+2200)
• Cristobal Lopez Romero (+2500)
• Mauro Gambetti (+2500)
• Jean-Claude Hollerich (+2500)
• Thomas Aquino Manyo Maeda (+2500)
• Claudio Gugerotti (+2500)
• Joseph W. Tobin (+2800)
• Jose Tolentino Calaca de Mendonca (+2800)
• Timothy Radcliffe (+3300)
• Orani Joao Tempesta (+3300)
• Leopoldo Brenes (+3300)
• Timothy Dolan (+4000)
• Robert Francis Prevost (+4000)
• Konrad Krajewski (+4000)
• Malcolm Ranjith (+4000)
• Anders Arborelius (+4000)
• Charles Maung Bo (+4000)
• Wim Eijk (+5000)
• Michael Czerny (+5000)
• Wilton Gregory (+5000)
• Vincent Nichols (+6600)
• Angelo De Donatis (+6600)
• Joao Braz de Aviz (+6600)
• Italo Dell'Oro (+6600)
• Francis Arinze (+6600)
• Dominik Duka (+6600)
• Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga (+6600)
• Mark Ouellet (+6600)
• Jaime Spengler (+6600)
• Sean Patrick O'Malley (+6600)
• Christoph Schonborn (+6600)
• Odilo Pedro Scherer (+6600)
• Angel Artime (+6600)
• Antonio Canizares Llovera (+8000)
• Gerald Cyprien Lacroix (+8000)
• Daniel Sturla (+8000)
• Chilby Langlois (+8000)
• Bechara Peter Rai (+8000)
• Artur Roche (+8000)
• Mauro Piacenza (+8000)
• Carlo Maria Vigano (+8000)

📰 Latest news on the search for the next pope

​As of April 28, 2025, the Catholic Church is preparing for the conclave to elect the 267th pope, following the death of Pope Francis on April 21 at age 88. The conclave is scheduled to begin on May 7 in the Sistine Chapel, with 135 cardinal-electors participating - the largest such gathering in Church history.

🗳️ Conclave Dynamics

The upcoming conclave is marked by a diverse and globally representative College of Cardinals, largely appointed by Pope Francis. This diversity reflects Francis's emphasis on inclusivity and may influence the selection of a successor who continues his pastoral and reformist legacy.

However, the conclave is expected to be complex, with no clear frontrunner. Tensions exist between progressive and conservative factions within the Church, and the cardinals' limited familiarity with one another could prolong the decision-making process.

🔮 Leading contenders

Several cardinals are considered strong candidates to become the next pope:

• Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines): At 67, Tagle is known for his humility and connection with the faithful. He currently serves as the Pro-Prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization. His election would mark the first Asian pope, reflecting the Church's growth in Asia
• Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy): The Vatican Secretary of State, Parolin is a seasoned diplomat with extensive experience in Church governance. However, his involvement in a €200 million investment scandal may affect his candidacy
• Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy): As Archbishop of Bologna and President of the Italian Episcopal Conference, Zuppi is known for his diplomatic skills and centrist views. He is seen as a unifying figure within the Church
• Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana): A strong advocate for social justice, Turkson's election would mark the first African pope in over 1,500 years. His leadership could resonate with the Church's growing presence in Africa
• Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italy): The Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, Pizzaballa has extensive experience in interfaith dialogue and is considered a potential frontrunner for the papacy

🧭 Challenges for the next pope

The new pope will face significant challenges, including:

• Financial crisis: The Vatican is grappling with a deepening financial crisis, including a pension fund shortfall exceeding €631 million
• Declining attendance: Church attendance is declining in Western countries, necessitating efforts to revitalize faith communities
• Doctrinal debates: Contentious issues such as the role of women in the Church and the blessing of same-sex couples continue to spark debate

📌 Conclusion

The upcoming conclave represents a pivotal moment for the Catholic Church, with the potential to shape its direction for decades to come. The selection of the next pope will reflect the Church's response to contemporary challenges and its vision for the future.

🏆 Who is the most likely to be the next pope?

Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy)

• Age: 70
• Vatican Secretary of State (akin to a prime minister)
• Deeply experienced in Church governance and diplomacy
• More of a centrist, with traditional backing
• Odds: +225

👥 Other top contenders

Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines)

• Age: 67
• Former Manila archbishop and current Pro-Prefect of Evangelization
• Charismatic, global appeal, strong communicator
• Considered a Francis-style progressive from the Global South
• Odds: +225

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy)

• Age: 69
• Current Role: Archbishop of Bologna; President of the Italian Bishops’ Conference
• Why He’s a Frontrunner:
• Strong pastoral and diplomatic reputation
• Deep alignment with Pope Francis’ emphasis on peace, mercy, and inclusion
• Seen as a unifying figure who can appeal to both reformers and traditionalists
• Has led Vatican peace efforts in Ukraine and elsewhere
• Odds: +600

🗳️ How is the new pope chosen?

A new pope is chosen through a centuries-old process called a papal conclave, which takes place after the death or resignation of the current pope. The conclave is expected to meet in mid-May to begin selecting the 267th pope.

To help you know how to bet on the next pope, here's a breakdown of how it works:

1. Vacancy of the papacy

• The process begins when the papacy becomes vacant—either due to the pope’s death or resignation (as in the case of Pope Benedict XVI in 2013)

2. Conclave of cardinals

• The College of Cardinals - the body of senior church officials - gathers in Rome
• Only cardinals under the age of 80 are eligible to vote. As of now, that’s usually around 120 cardinals

3. Secrecy and isolation

• The conclave takes place in the Sistine Chapel. Cardinals are sequestered from the outside world - no phones, media, or contact allowed
• They take an oath of secrecy, and the entire process is highly confidential

4. Voting

• Voting occurs in rounds. Each cardinal writes down the name of one man they believe should be pope (he must be male and Catholic - usually a cardinal, but technically any Catholic man is eligible)
• A candidate needs a two-thirds majority to be elected pope
• After each round, the ballots are burned:
• If no pope is chosen, black smoke appears from the chapel’s chimney
• If a new pope is elected, white smoke signals success

5. Acceptance and announcement

• The elected cardinal is asked: “Do you accept your canonical election as Supreme Pontiff?” If he says yes, he chooses a papal name
• The senior cardinal deacon then steps onto the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica and announces: “Habemus Papam” (We have a pope)

6. The new pope appears

• The new pope steps out and gives his first blessing, known as Urbi et Orbi ("to the city and the world")

🤖 AI prediction for the new pope

We've previously used ChatGPT to predict its March Madness bracket and Super Bowl picks, and we're once again turning to OpenAI's popular chatbot to predict the next pope.

We trained ChatGPT's latest and most advanced AI model to study the papal candidates, history, and relevant trends before predicting the 267th pope.

🔮 Updated prediction: Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines)

Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5)
Estimated Probability: ~27%
Current Odds: +225 (30.77%)

Why Tagle?

• Global representation: As a Filipino, Tagle would be the first Asian pope, reflecting the Church's growing presence in Asia
• Pastoral approach: Known for his humility and connection with the faithful, he embodies the pastoral spirit of Pope Francis
• Experience: Currently serving as the pro-prefect for the Dicastery for Evangelization, he has significant experience within the Vatican

🌍 Emerging consensus

The conclave's outcome is challenging to predict due to its secretive nature and the diverse backgrounds of the electors. While Tagle's pastoral approach and global representation make him a strong candidate, factors such as internal Church politics and regional alliances will significantly influence the decision.

🌎 Where to bet on next pope odds

Use Kalshi promo code 'SBR' to join Kalshi today and receive a $10 sign-up bonus. Kalshi is legal and regulated in most U.S. states and Washington, D.C.

Kalshi lists Pietro Parolin as having a 30% chance of becoming the new pope, with Luis Antonio Tagle (20%), and Peter Turkson (13%) next in line.

🕊️ Papal name of the next pope

A papal name is the new name a pope chooses upon being elected to the papacy. This name becomes his official title as pope and is how he’ll be known throughout his pontificate (i.e., Pope Francis, Pope John Paul II).

Here is Kalshi's market for the next pope's name:

• Other (40%)
• Francis (12%)
• John Paul (12%) - Must be both names
• Gregory (10%)
• John (9%)
• Benedict (7%)
• Pius (7%)
• Leo (7%)
• Clement (5%)
• Adrian (3%)
• Alexander (2%)
• Boniface (2%)
• Urban (2%)
• Stephen (2%)
• Paul (4%)

🕊️ Why do popes choose a new name?

The tradition began in 533 A.D. when Pope John II (born Mercurius) chose not to keep his pagan birth name. Since then, every pope has adopted a papal name to reflect:

• Spiritual inspiration
• Tribute to a past pope or saint
• The vision or tone for their papacy

✝️ How is the name chosen?

• After being elected in the Sistine Chapel, the new pope is asked, "By what name shall you be called?"
• He chooses the name immediately - sometimes spontaneously, sometimes long-considered
• The Cardinal Protodeacon then announces the new name from the balcony with the iconic “Habemus Papam” ("We have a pope")

📜 Examples & meanings

• Pope Francis (2013): Chose the name in honor of St. Francis of Assisi, symbolizing humility and care for the poor
• Pope John Paul II: Honored his predecessor John Paul I and emphasized continuity
• Pope Benedict XVI: Evoked Benedict XV, a peace-seeking pope during WWI, and St. Benedict, founder of Western monasticism

📅 When will the next pope be chosen?

The next pope will be chosen during the upcoming papal conclave, which will likely take place within 15 to 20 days following the death of Pope Francis on April 21. Here is Kalshi's prediction market for when will the next pope be announced:

• Before May 9: 56%
• Before May 16: 90%
• Before June 1: 93%

⏳ Timeline to expect:

• April 21: Pope Francis passes away
• Nine days of mourning: The church observes the Novemdiales, a traditional period of mourning, including daily masses for the deceased pope
• Conclave begins: Expected between May 1–3, though the exact date will be set by the College of Cardinals
• New pope chosen: Typically within a few days after the conclave begins - recent conclaves have lasted between 1 and 5 days

Once a two-thirds majority is reached and the elected cardinal accepts, the new pope will be introduced with the traditional “Habemus Papam” announcement from the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica.

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